Sport Picks
Al Qadsiah vs Al Nassr
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Dammam 
Match Events
24'
24'
Abu Al Shamat M.
Assist: Bonsu Baah C.
39'
39'
Joao Felix
Assist: Brozovic M.
41'
41'
Martinez I.
AI Match Summary
The Saudi Professional League 2025/2026 game between Al Qadsiah and Al Nassr finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Qadsiah.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
52%
20%
28%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Qadsiah
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Al Nassr's 2.48 goals per match outpaces what Al Qadsiah have produced (2.33).
- Al Qadsiah are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Al Qadsiah have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Al Qadsiah Clean Sheet 13%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Qadsiah | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 20 | 20 |
| Draws | 7 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 2.33 | 2.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Qadsiah vs Al Nassr
3:1
Jan 8, 2026 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah
1:2
Apr 18, 2025 Saudi Professional League
Al Qadsiah vs Al Nassr
2:1
Nov 22, 2024 Saudi Professional League
Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah
1:2
Feb 18, 2021 Saudi Professional League
Al Qadsiah vs Al Nassr
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al Qadsiah Compare
Top Goalscorer Abu Al Shamat M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Al Juwayr M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Al Nassr Compare
Top Goalscorer Joao Felix
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al Qadsiah 84 / 100
Al Nassr 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al Qadsiah Al Nassr
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Al Qadsiah Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Al Qadsiah scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.
Solid form: Al Qadsiah remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Al Nassr let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Al Qadsiah VS Al Nassr
2.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Al Qadsiah
(Home) 14 Sept
Al Qadsiah
2 : 1 Al Wasl
11 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 3 Al Ettifaq FC
08 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 2 Al Ahli SC
03 Sept
Al Diriyah
0 : 2 Al Qadsiah
30 Aug
Al Qadsiah
3 : 1 Al-Faisaly
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Al Qadsiah
2 : 1 Al Wasl
11 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 3 Al Ettifaq FC
08 Sept
Al Qadsiah
3 : 2 Al Ahli SC
30 Aug
Al Qadsiah
3 : 1 Al-Faisaly
21 Aug
Al Qadsiah
0 : 1 Al Ittihad
Page 1 of 3
Al Nassr
(Away) 15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0 Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1 Al Nassr
09 Sept
Al Nassr
2 : 1 Abha
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1 Al Nassr
28 Aug
Al Nassr
2 : 1 Al Taawon
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Al Ain
4 : 0 Al Nassr
12 Sept
Al Khaleej
1 : 1 Al Nassr
05 Sept
Al Ittihad
2 : 1 Al Nassr
25 Aug
Al Ettifaq FC
2 : 3 Al Nassr
21 Aug
Al Riyadh
0 : 4 Al Nassr
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nassr | 34 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 91:28 | 86 |
| 2 | Al Hilal | 34 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 85:27 | 84 |
| 3 | Al Ahli SC | 34 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 71:25 | 81 |
| 4 | Al Qadsiah | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 83:34 | 77 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 55:48 | 55 |
| 6 | Al Taawon | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 59:46 | 53 |
| 7 | Al Ettifaq FC | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 51:55 | 50 |
| 8 | Neom SC | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 43:48 | 45 |
| 9 | Al Hazem Rass | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 38:57 | 42 |
| 10 | Al Fayha | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 41:54 | 38 |
| 11 | Al Fateh | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 41:55 | 37 |
| 12 | Al Khaleej | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 54:62 | 37 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 44:57 | 35 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 39:61 | 33 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 35:63 | 30 |
| 16 | Damac | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 32:55 | 29 |
| 17 | Al Okhdood | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 27:70 | 20 |
| 18 | Al Najma | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 32:76 | 16 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Division 1 (Main)
