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Al Qassim vs Al Naft - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Iraq Cup
Fri, Jun 5, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Al Naft are expected to control this from the start. Al Qassim have averaged 0.69 scored and 2.72 conceded recently, against Al Naft's 0.83 scored and 0.72 conceded. Past meetings favor Al Naft slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 5, 2026, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.79 vs 1.52, favoring Al Naft. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Al Qassim
20%
Draws
73%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Al Naft carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Al Naft a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Al Naft arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Naft, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Al Qassim Clean Sheet 15%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Qassim Al Naft
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 0 10
Draws 5 13
Losses 24 6
Goals Scored 0.69 0.83
Goals Conceded 2.72 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.52
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 Iraq Cup
Al Qassim vs Al Naft
0:0
Mar 25, 2026 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Al Naft
0:2
Sep 14, 2025 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Al Naft
0:3
Mar 23, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Qassim
1:0
Nov 6, 2024 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Al Naft
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Qassim 10 / 100
Al Naft 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Qassim Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Qassim's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Al Naft conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Qassim remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Qassim VS Al Naft
0.83 Goals Scored 0.88
2.17 Goals Conceded 0.75
83% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 25%
17% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Qassim

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al Qassim
28 May
Al Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
19 May
Al Qassim
2 : 5
Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1
Al Qassim
Page 1 of 6

Al Naft

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Al Shorta -
Al Bahri -
Al Karma -
Al Hashd Al Shaab -
Al Talaba -
Al Karkh -
Al Qassim -
Al Naft -
Naft Missan -
Al Zawraa -
Duhok -
Erbil -
Al Minaa -
Zakho -
Al Quwa Al Jawiya -
Karbala -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -