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Al-Qassim vs Al Gharraf

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Basim A.
31' Event
Kuku K.
40' Event
Hadhri A.

AI Match Summary

Al Gharraf in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Gharraf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Al-Qassim
20%
Draws
40%
Al Gharraf
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Al Gharraf have won more games recently than Al-Qassim.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Al-Qassim Clean Sheet 68%
Al Gharraf Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Qassim Al Gharraf
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 0 6
Draws 5 8
Losses 24 16
Goals Scored 0.69 0.9
Goals Conceded 2.72 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 Stars League
Al-Qassim vs Al Gharraf
1:5
Oct 4, 2025 Stars League
Al Gharraf vs Al-Qassim
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Qassim Compare

Top Goalscorer Basim A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Gharraf Compare

Top Goalscorer Kuku K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hadhri A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Qassim 41 / 100
Al Gharraf 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Qassim Al Gharraf

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Qassim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Al Gharraf conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Al-Qassim found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Al Gharraf lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Qassim VS Al Gharraf
0.83 Goals Scored 1.13
2.17 Goals Conceded 1.13
83% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Qassim

(Home)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
19 May
Al-Qassim
2 : 5
Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al-Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1
Al-Qassim
Page 1 of 6

Al Gharraf

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Al Gharraf
12 Sept
Diyala
3 : 1
Al Gharraf
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
03 Sept
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Al Gharraf
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)