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Al Rayyan vs Al Gharafa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Qatar Qatar

QSL Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Rayyan host Al Gharafa in the QSL. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Al Rayyan at 2.3 goals for, 1.26 against; Al Gharafa at 1.48 for, 2.07 against. Head-to-head, Al Rayyan have won 0 to Al Gharafa's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 26, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (2.19 - 1.50) back Al Rayyan to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Al Rayyan
35%
Draws
20%
Al Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Rayyan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Gharafa haven't matched Al Rayyan's recent run of results.
  • Al Rayyan are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular QSL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • History favors Al Gharafa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Al Rayyan Clean Sheet 16%
Al Gharafa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Rayyan Al Gharafa
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 17 9
Draws 6 4
Losses 4 16
Goals Scored 2.3 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.26 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Al Rayyan
3:2
Sep 25, 2025 QSL
Al Rayyan vs Al Gharafa
2:3
May 24, 2025 Emir Cup
Al Rayyan vs Al Gharafa
1:2
Jan 29, 2025 QSL
Al Rayyan vs Al Gharafa
2:2
Aug 23, 2024 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Al Rayyan
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Rayyan 84 / 100
Al Gharafa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Rayyan Al Gharafa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Rayyan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Rayyan scored in 96% of their last 27 games.

Al Gharafa has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Rayyan remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Rayyan VS Al Gharafa
2.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Rayyan

(Home)
28 Sept
Al Sailiya
1 : 1
Al Rayyan
20 Sept
Al Rayyan
2 : 2
Qatar SC
16 Sept
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Al Faisaly Amman
11 Sept
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Al Ahli
05 Sept
Al Rayyan
1 : 1
Al Duhail
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Al Gharafa

(Away)
08 Oct
Al Wakra
3 : 2
Al Gharafa
01 Oct
Al Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al Gharafa
11 Sept
Al Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al Sadd
4 : 1
Al Gharafa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Sadd 4 4 0 0 19:7 12
2 Al Rayyan 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Al Duhail 5 2 3 0 9:3 9
4 Shamal 5 2 2 1 10:10 8
5 Al Arabi (Qatar) 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
6 Lusail 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Al Wakra 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
8 Al Shahaniya 4 1 1 2 7:9 4
9 Al Ahli 4 1 1 2 5:9 4
10 Al Gharafa 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
11 Qatar SC 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
12 Al Sailiya 4 0 0 4 5:13 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 2027/2028 (Main)