Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Sadd vs Al Gharafa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Qatar Qatar

QSL Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Abdurisag Y.
Assist: Roberto Firmino
12' Event
Claudinho
Assist: Afif A.
39'
Sub
Traore D. In: Coman F.
Out: Traore D.

AI Match Summary

Al Sadd in this QSL matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Sadd.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Al Sadd
15%
Draws
21%
Al Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Sadd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Al Sadd have won more games recently than Al Gharafa.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Al Sadd taking it.
  • Regular QSL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 83%
Al Sadd Clean Sheet 19%
Al Gharafa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Sadd Al Gharafa
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 18 9
Draws 2 4
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 2.7 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.89 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 QSL
Al Sadd vs Al Gharafa
4:1
Sep 1, 2026 Qatar Cup
Al Sadd vs Al Gharafa
2:1
May 9, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Gharafa vs Al Sadd
4:1
Jan 31, 2026 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Al Sadd
1:3
Sep 1, 2025 QSL Cup
Al Gharafa vs Al Sadd
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Sadd Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdurisag Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Claudinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Al Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Brahimi Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Sadd 85 / 100
Al Gharafa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Sadd Al Gharafa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Sadd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Sadd found the back of the net in 96% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Al Gharafa conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Al Sadd stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Sadd VS Al Gharafa
3 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Sadd

(Home)
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0
Al Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6
Al Sadd
05 Sept
Al Sadd
4 : 1
Al Gharafa
01 Sept
Al Sadd
2 : 1
Al Gharafa
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6
Al Sadd
Page 1 of 6

Al Gharafa

(Away)
08 Oct
Al Wakra
3 : 2
Al Gharafa
01 Oct
Al Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al Gharafa
11 Sept
Al Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al Sadd
4 : 1
Al Gharafa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Sadd 4 4 0 0 19:7 12
2 Al Rayyan 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Al Duhail 5 2 3 0 9:3 9
4 Shamal 5 2 2 1 10:10 8
5 Al Arabi (Qatar) 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
6 Lusail 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Al Wakra 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
8 Al Shahaniya 4 1 1 2 7:9 4
9 Al Ahli 4 1 1 2 5:9 4
10 Al Gharafa 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
11 Qatar SC 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
12 Al Sailiya 4 0 0 4 5:13 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 2027/2028 (Main)