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Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa Prediction & H2H Stats

Qatar Qatar

Qatar Cup Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan
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Match Events

5'
Claudinho
14' Event
Magri F.
Assist: Brahimi Y.
25' Event
Ali H.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Al-Sadd
15%
Draws
21%
Al-Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al-Sadd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Al-Sadd carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al-Sadd's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Al-Sadd have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al-Sadd, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Al-Sadd Clean Sheet 20%
Al-Gharafa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Sadd Al-Gharafa
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 9
Draws 2 4
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.61 1.41
Goals Conceded 2 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
4:1
Sep 1, 2026 Qatar Cup
Al-Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
2:1
May 9, 2026 Emir Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
4:1
Jan 31, 2026 QSL
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
1:3
Sep 1, 2025 QSL Cup
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Sadd
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Sadd Compare

Top Goalscorer Ali H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manai M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Gharafa Compare

Top Goalscorer Magri F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Sadd 85 / 100
Al-Gharafa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Sadd Al-Gharafa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Sadd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al-Sadd's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Al-Gharafa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Al-Sadd has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Al-Sadd VS Al-Gharafa
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Sadd

(Home)
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0
Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6
Al-Sadd
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6
Al-Sadd
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Al-Gharafa

(Away)
01 Oct
Al-Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Al-Sadd 2
Al-Gharafa 1
Shamal 3
Al Rayyan 4
Final
Al-Sadd -
Al Rayyan -