Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al-Sadd vs Shamal

Qatar Qatar

QSL 2025/2026 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Afif A.
Assist: Pedro Miguel
22' Event
Roberto Firmino
Assist: Claudinho
30'
Waad M.

AI Match Summary

Al-Sadd in this QSL 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al-Sadd.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Al-Sadd
20%
Draws
32%
Shamal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al-Sadd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Al-Sadd lately — more wins on the board than Shamal.
  • Al-Sadd are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular QSL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al-Sadd here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Al-Sadd Clean Sheet 20%
Shamal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al-Sadd Shamal
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 21 13
Draws 2 6
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 2.61 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Emir Cup
Shamal vs Al-Sadd
4:6
Apr 27, 2026 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Shamal
3:2
Dec 29, 2025 QSL
Shamal vs Al-Sadd
0:3
Jan 12, 2025 QSL
Al-Sadd vs Shamal
1:0
Aug 10, 2024 QSL
Shamal vs Al-Sadd
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al-Sadd Compare

Top Goalscorer Afif A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roberto Firmino
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Shamal Compare

Top Goalscorer Bounedjah B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al-Sadd 85 / 100
Shamal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al-Sadd Shamal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Sadd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al-Sadd scored in 87% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Shamal let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Al-Sadd stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al-Sadd VS Shamal
2.5 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Al-Sadd

(Home)
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0
Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Al Sailiya
3 : 6
Al-Sadd
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
28 Aug
Qatar SC
2 : 6
Al-Sadd
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Shamal

(Away)
14 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Ittihad
10 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Wakra
04 Sept
Shamal
4 : 2
Al-Shahaniya
01 Sept
Shamal
3 : 4
Al Rayyan
27 Aug
Al-Gharafa
1 : 3
Shamal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Sadd 22 14 3 5 56:30 45
2 Shamal 22 12 4 6 39:28 40
3 Al Rayyan 22 11 5 6 46:32 38
4 Al-Gharafa 22 11 3 8 36:36 36
5 Al-Duhail 22 9 6 7 40:27 33
6 Al Arabi (Qatar) 22 9 5 8 37:41 32
7 Al Wakra 22 8 6 8 36:34 30
8 Qatar SC 22 8 5 9 32:36 29
9 Al Ahli 22 8 2 12 34:43 26
10 Al Sailiya 22 6 4 12 25:38 22
11 Al-Shahaniya 22 6 3 13 22:39 21
12 Umm-Salal 22 6 2 14 37:56 20
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Relegation - QSL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 (Main)