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Al Sahel vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Sidiki Toure A.
Assist: Al Hussein H.
45' Event
Haidar M.
(Penalty)
64' Event
Fakih A.
Assist: Abata V.

AI Match Summary

Al Sahel in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Sahel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Al Sahel
30%
Draws
16%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Sahel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ahed have won more games recently than Al Sahel.
  • Model gives Al Sahel a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Ahed here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Al Sahel Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Sahel Al Ahed
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 8 4
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.37 1.47
Goals Conceded 1 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Al Sahel
4:2
Dec 20, 2025 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
1:8
Sep 24, 2023 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
0:5
Apr 24, 2023 Lebanese Cup
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Sahel Compare

Top Goalscorer Fakih A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Sidiki Toure A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.85

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Sahel 68 / 100
Al Ahed 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Sahel Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Sahel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Al Sahel scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Al Ahed conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Al Sahel remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Sahel VS Al Ahed
1.14 Goals Scored 1.63
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 63%
57% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Sahel

(Home)
02 Jul
Jwayya SC
0 : 0
Al Sahel
28 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 2
Al Sahel
24 Jun
Al Sahel
3 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
16 Jun
Al Sahel
2 : 0
Racing
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
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Al Ahed

(Away)
01 Aug
Al Ahed
2 : 2
Jwayya SC
28 Jul
Nejmeh SC
2 : 1
Al Ahed
24 Jul
Al Ahed
1 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Jul
Jwayya SC
2 : 0
Al Ahed
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53:9 53
2 Nejmeh SC 21 14 4 3 42:10 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 34:22 40
4 Jwayya SC 21 11 5 5 31:14 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 30:17 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 29:27 30
7 Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 22:21 27
8 Al-Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 12:36 22
9 Al Riyadi Abbasiyah 21 5 5 11 16:30 20
10 Tadamon 21 3 8 10 12:26 17
11 Racing 21 0 1 20 4:61 1
12 Bourj 11 3 1 7 8:20 10
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)