Sport Picks

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Al Sahel vs Al Ahed

Lebanon Lebanon

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Sidiki Toure A.
Assist: Al Hussein H.
45' Event
Haidar M.
(Penalty)
64' Event
Fakih A.
Assist: Abata V.

AI Match Summary

Al Sahel in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Sahel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Al Sahel
40%
Draws
29%
Al Ahed
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Ahed have won more games recently than Al Sahel.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Ahed here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Al Sahel Clean Sheet 20%
Al Ahed Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Sahel Al Ahed
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 9 3
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Premier League
Al Ahed vs Al Sahel
4:2
Dec 20, 2025 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
1:8
Sep 24, 2023 Premier League
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
0:5
Apr 24, 2023 Lebanese Cup
Al Sahel vs Al Ahed
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Sahel Compare

Top Goalscorer Fakih A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Ahed Compare

Top Goalscorer Sidiki Toure A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Sahel 32 / 100
Al Ahed 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Sahel Al Ahed

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Al Sahel scored in 65% of their last 34 outings.

Defensive concern: Al Ahed conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Al Sahel remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Sahel VS Al Ahed
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Sahel

(Home)
02 Jul
Jwayya SC
0 : 0
Al Sahel
28 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 2
Al Sahel
24 Jun
Al Sahel
3 : 0
Al Riyadi Abbasiyah
16 Jun
Al Sahel
2 : 0
Racing
12 Jun
Al Sahel
0 : 1
Safa
Page 1 of 7

Al Ahed

(Away)
16 Jul
Al Ahed
0 : 2
Nejmeh SC
12 Jul
Al Ansar
3 : 3
Al Ahed
28 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 2
Al Sahel
24 Jun
Al Ahed
4 : 1
Safa
20 Jun
Al Ansar
3 : 1
Al Ahed
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ansar21172253:953
2Nejmeh SC21144342:1046
3Al Ahed21131734:2240
4Jwayya SC21115531:1438
5Safa21113730:1736
6Al Hikma2193929:2730
7Al Sahel2176822:2127
8Al-Mabarrah2157912:3622
9Al Riyadi Abbasiyah21551116:3020
10Tadamon21381012:2617
11Racing2101204:611
12Bourj113178:2010
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Main)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)