Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Shorta vs Al Naft

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Abdulkadhim S.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Shorta and Al Naft finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Al Shorta
30%
Draws
33%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Al Naft haven't matched Al Shorta's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Al Shorta's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Al Shorta here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 68%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shorta Al Naft
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 20 11
Draws 9 13
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.85 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.85 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Naft
1:0
Mar 21, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Shorta
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Al Naft
4:0
Oct 31, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Al Shorta
0:2
Jul 7, 2024 Iraq Cup
Al Shorta vs Al Naft
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Abdulkadhim S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Al Naft Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shorta 68 / 100
Al Naft 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shorta Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Shorta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Shorta scored in 88% of their last 34 games.

Solid form: Al Shorta remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Al Naft conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Al Shorta VS Al Naft
0.88 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shorta

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
Page 1 of 7

Al Naft

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)