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Al Shorta vs Baghdad

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
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Match Events

4' Event
Al Mawas M.
20' Event
Atiba L.
51' Event
Farhan A.

AI Match Summary

Al Shorta in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Al Shorta
20%
Draws
17%
Baghdad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Baghdad haven't matched Al Shorta's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Al Shorta a 63% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Shorta have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 68%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shorta Baghdad
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 9 7
Losses 4 18
Goals Scored 1.68 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Baghdad
4:1
Dec 30, 2025 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Shorta
2:1
May 13, 2024 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Baghdad
2:1
Dec 5, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Shorta
1:2
Jun 7, 2022 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Baghdad
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Mawas M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Atiba L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shorta 95 / 100
Baghdad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shorta Baghdad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Shorta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Shorta scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Baghdad conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Shorta remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Shorta VS Baghdad
0.88 Goals Scored 1.17
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.83
63% Over 1.5 67%
13% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shorta

(Home)
19 Sept
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Kahraba
16 Sept
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Seeb
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Al Gharraf
1 : 2
Al Shorta
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
Page 1 of 7

Baghdad

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)