Sport Picks

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Al Shorta vs Baghdad

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Al Mawas M.
20' Event
Atiba L.
51' Event
Farhan A.

AI Match Summary

Al Shorta in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Shorta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Al Shorta
6%
Draws
4%
Baghdad
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Baghdad haven't matched Al Shorta's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Al Shorta a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Shorta have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.400000000000006%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 68%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shorta Baghdad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 9 7
Losses 3 18
Goals Scored 1.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Baghdad
4:1
Dec 30, 2025 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Shorta
2:1
May 13, 2024 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Baghdad
2:1
Dec 5, 2023 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Shorta
1:2
Jun 7, 2022 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Baghdad
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shorta Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Mawas M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Atiba L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Baghdad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shorta 95 / 100
Baghdad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shorta Baghdad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Shorta scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Baghdad conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Shorta remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Shorta VS Baghdad
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shorta

(Home)
02 Jun
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Al Minaa
28 May
Al Karkh
0 : 2
Al Shorta
20 May
Al Shorta
0 : 2
Erbil
15 May
Diyala
0 : 2
Al Shorta
10 May
Al Shorta
1 : 0
Al Gharraf
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Baghdad

(Away)
08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1
Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3
Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4
Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1
Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)