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Al Shorta vs Karbala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Barco C.
(Penalty)
62'
Alwan A.
90' Event
Amutu A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Al Shorta
35%
Draws
10%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Shorta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Shorta have won more games recently than Karbala.
  • 55% — that's where the model lands on Al Shorta taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Shorta here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Al Shorta Clean Sheet 20%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Shorta Karbala
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 3
Draws 10 7
Losses 3 19
Goals Scored 1.48 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Karbala
1:1
Mar 9, 2025 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Karbala
4:0
Jan 18, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Shorta
0:1
May 17, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Shorta
1:2
Oct 30, 2023 Stars League
Al Shorta vs Karbala
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Shorta Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Karbala Compare

Top Goalscorer Amutu A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Shorta 85 / 100
Karbala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Shorta Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Shorta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Al Shorta scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Karbala has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Al Shorta has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Al Shorta VS Karbala
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Shorta

(Home)
08 Nov
Al Shorta
2 : 1
Al Naft
03 Nov
Al Hussein
0 : 3
Al Shorta
31 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Newroz
27 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Al Hussein
23 Oct
Al Zawraa
0 : 2
Al Shorta
Page 1 of 6

Karbala

(Away)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
30 Oct
Karbala
2 : 2
Al Talaba
23 Oct
Duhok
5 : 2
Karbala
16 Oct
Karbala
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
10 Oct
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)