Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Al Talaba vs Al-Karma

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Al Talaba Stadium, Baghdad
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Saadeh I.
Own Goal
54' Event
Maknzi A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Al Talaba
30%
Draws
51%
Al-Karma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Al-Karma have won more games recently than Al Talaba.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Al-Karma taking it.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Talaba Al-Karma
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 12
Draws 10 12
Losses 8 4
Goals Scored 1.36 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.29 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Al-Karma
1:1
Feb 5, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Talaba
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Al Talaba
1:1
Oct 24, 2024 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Al-Karma
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Talaba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Maknzi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Talaba 10 / 100
Al-Karma 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Talaba Al-Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Talaba's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Al-Karma has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Al Talaba remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Talaba VS Al-Karma
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Talaba

(Home)
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0
Al Talaba
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
26 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 3
Newroz
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Al-Karma

(Away)
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
26 Aug
Al Kahraba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)