Sport Picks
Match Events
21'
21'
Msuva S.
36'
36'
Muntadher A.
70'
70'
Talib H.
AI Match Summary
The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Al Talaba and Baghdad finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Talaba.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Talaba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Al Talaba carry the better recent record into this one.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Al Talaba taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Al Talaba here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Al Talaba Clean Sheet 68%
Baghdad Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Al Talaba | Baghdad |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 5 |
| Draws | 11 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.54 | 1.33 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 25, 2026 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Baghdad
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Talaba
2:1
Feb 27, 2025 Iraq Cup
Al Talaba vs Baghdad
2:0
May 5, 2024 Stars League
Al Talaba vs Baghdad
3:2
Feb 22, 2024 Stars League
Baghdad vs Al Talaba
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Al Talaba Compare
Top Goalscorer Msuva S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Muntadher A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.77
Baghdad Compare
Top Goalscorer Talib H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Al Talaba 51 / 100
Baghdad 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Al Talaba Baghdad
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Baghdad let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.
Al Talaba scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Al Talaba went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Al Talaba VS Baghdad
1.25 Goals Scored 1.17
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.83
88% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Al Talaba
(Home) 18 Sept
Al Talaba
2 : 2 Al Golan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0 Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2 Al Karkh
05 Sept
Zakho
0 : 0 Al Talaba
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0 Al Naft
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18 Sept
Al Talaba
2 : 2 Al Golan
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2 Al Karkh
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0 Al Naft
26 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 3 Newroz
01 Jun
Al Talaba
1 : 1 Al Karkh
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Baghdad
(Away) 08 Jun
Baghdad
0 : 1 Karbala
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1 Baghdad
27 May
Baghdad
1 : 3 Al Gharraf
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4 Baghdad
15 May
Baghdad
0 : 1 Al Kahraba
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02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1 Baghdad
19 May
Diyala
1 : 4 Baghdad
11 May
Al Karkh
2 : 1 Baghdad
07 May
Al Najaf
1 : 1 Baghdad
21 Apr
Al Minaa
4 : 0 Baghdad
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 62:28 | 89 |
| 2 | Al Shorta | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 69:32 | 80 |
| 3 | Erbil | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 59:32 | 79 |
| 4 | Al Zawraa | 38 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 50:32 | 66 |
| 5 | Al-Karma | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 53:26 | 65 |
| 6 | Al Talaba | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53:38 | 65 |
| 7 | Al Karkh | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51:41 | 60 |
| 8 | Newroz | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 48:47 | 54 |
| 9 | Zakho | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 49:45 | 53 |
| 10 | Duhok | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 44:45 | 50 |
| 11 | Diyala | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40:42 | 49 |
| 12 | Al Naft | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 33:34 | 48 |
| 13 | Al Mosul | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 46:49 | 47 |
| 14 | Al Gharraf | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 40:43 | 44 |
| 15 | Naft Missan | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 48:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Al Minaa | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 38:47 | 40 |
| 17 | Al Kahraba | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 44:56 | 38 |
| 18 | Baghdad | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 47:68 | 37 |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 31:68 | 23 |
| 20 | Al-Qassim | 38 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 21:96 | 6 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
