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Stadium Background

Al Ula vs Al Orubah - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia

Division 1 2025/2026 Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Medina
Mon, May 18, 2026
2 - 1
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Sub
Hendi A. In: Al Jarbi S.
Out: Hendi A.
47'
Al Jaweed A.
66'
Sub
Rabie F. In: Al Hunaiti Z.
Out: Rabie F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Al Ula advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Al Ula
35%
Draws
21%
Al Orubah
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Ula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Al Ula come out ahead of Al Orubah on wins alone.
  • 44% — that's where the model lands on Al Ula taking it.
  • Al Ula have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Al Ula, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Al Ula here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Al Ula Clean Sheet 20%
Al Orubah Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Ula Al Orubah
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 20 13
Draws 5 6
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.81 1.41
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2026 Division 1
Al Ula vs Al Orubah
2:1
Mar 3, 2026 Division 1
Al Ula vs Al Orubah
3:1
Nov 8, 2025 Division 1
Al Orubah vs Al Ula
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Al Ula Compare

Top Goalscorer Danilo Barbosa
1 Goals
Assists Leader Adam A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Al Orubah Compare

Top Goalscorer Simy
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Ula 76 / 100
Al Orubah 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Ula Al Orubah

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ula Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Ula scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Al Ula went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Al Orubah let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Scoring Trends

Al Ula VS Al Orubah
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Ula

(Home)
14 Sept
Al Ula
3 : 0
Jeddah Club
08 Sept
Damac
0 : 1
Al Ula
02 Sept
Al Ula
2 : 0
Al Raed
28 Aug
Al Anwar
0 : 1
Al Ula
23 Aug
Al Ula
3 : 1
Al Jabalain
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Al Orubah

(Away)
20 Sept
Al Jabalain
0 : 0
Al Orubah
15 Sept
Al Orubah
1 : 0
Al Jeel
09 Sept
Jeddah Club
2 : 2
Al Orubah
01 Sept
Al Orubah
1 : 1
Al Zulfi
28 Aug
Damac
0 : 0
Al Orubah
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Al Diriyah 3
Al Jabalain 0
Al Ula 2
Al Orubah 1
Final
Al Diriyah 2
Al Ula 1