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Al Wakra vs Al Gharafa Prediction & H2H Stats

Qatar Qatar

QSL Al Janoub Stadium, Al Wakrah
Thu, Oct 8, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Wakra host Al Gharafa in the QSL. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Al Gharafa have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Al Wakra have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.47. Head-to-head, Al Wakra have won 0 to Al Gharafa's 3, with 2 draws. They last met on May 5, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.20 vs 1.00, favoring Al Gharafa. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Al Wakra
30%
Draws
31%
Al Gharafa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Wakra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Al Gharafa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Al Wakra's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular QSL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Al Wakra Clean Sheet 20%
Al Gharafa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Wakra Al Gharafa
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.47 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 Emir Cup
Al Wakra vs Al Gharafa
0:1
Apr 8, 2026 QSL
Al Wakra vs Al Gharafa
3:3
Dec 13, 2025 QSL Cup
Al Wakra vs Al Gharafa
2:3
Nov 21, 2025 QSL
Al Gharafa vs Al Wakra
1:0
Apr 11, 2025 QSL
Al Wakra vs Al Gharafa
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Wakra 36 / 100
Al Gharafa 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Wakra Al Gharafa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Gharafa let in goals in 88% of their last 32 matches.

Al Wakra's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Al Wakra remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Wakra VS Al-Gharafa
1 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Wakra

(Home)
28 Sept
Al-Kharitiyath
1 : 1
Al Wakra
20 Sept
Al Wakra
1 : 0
Al Sailiya
10 Sept
Shamal
1 : 1
Al Wakra
04 Sept
Lusail
4 : 0
Al Wakra
27 Aug
Al Wakra
1 : 2
Al Rayyan
Page 1 of 6

Al Gharafa

(Away)
01 Oct
Al-Gharafa
4 : 2
Al Mesaimeer
15 Sept
Al Hilal
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
05 Sept
Al-Sadd
4 : 1
Al-Gharafa
01 Sept
Al-Sadd
2 : 1
Al-Gharafa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Sadd 4 4 0 0 19:7 12
2 Al Rayyan 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
3 Shamal 4 2 2 0 10:6 8
4 Al Arabi (Qatar) 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
5 Al Duhail 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
6 Lusail 4 1 2 1 7:4 5
7 Al Shahaniya 4 1 1 2 7:9 4
8 Al Ahli 4 1 1 2 5:9 4
9 Al Gharafa 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
10 Qatar SC 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
11 Al Wakra 4 0 2 2 4:9 2
12 Al Sailiya 4 0 0 4 5:13 0
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - QSL (Relegation)
Relegation - QSL 2 2027/2028 (Main)