Sport Picks

Libya

Premier League 2024/2025

Al Ahly Tripoli

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Al Watan host Al Ahly Tripoli in the Premier League 2024/2025. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Al Watan have averaged 0.88 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Al Ahly Tripoli's 3 scored and 0.5 conceded. Past meetings favor Al Ahly Tripoli slightly — 0-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 14, 2026, ending 0:3. Model xG sits at 0.69 vs 2.00, favoring Al Ahly Tripoli. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Al Watan

39%

Draws

30%

Al Ahly Tripoli

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Al Watan haven't matched Al Ahly Tripoli's recent run of results.
Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Al Ahly Tripoli have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%

Al Watan Clean Sheet 10%

Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Al Watan	Al Ahly Tripoli
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	9	24
Draws	9	6
Losses	12	2
Goals Scored	0.88	3
Goals Conceded	1	0.5
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Premier League

Al Watan vs Al Ahly Tripoli

Possession: 54% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

0:3

Jan 15, 2026 Premier League

Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Watan

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 0 - 2

2:0

Mar 14, 2025 Premier League

Al Watan vs Al Ahly Tripoli

Possession: 53% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

0:2

Jan 17, 2025 Premier League

Al Ahly Tripoli vs Al Watan

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Watan 30 / 100

Al Ahly Tripoli 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Al Watan Al Ahly Tripoli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Al Watan scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Al Ahly Tripoli's defensive record shows goals conceded in 34% of 32 matches.

Recent resilience: Al Watan stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Al Watan VS Al Ahly Tripoli

0.88 Goals Scored 3

1 Goals Conceded 0.5

25% Over 1.5 88%

25% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Nasr	16	9	5	2	20:9	32
2	Al Akhdar	16	9	4	3	25:11	31
3	Al Tahaddi	16	6	7	3	20:14	25
4	Khaleej Sirte	16	5	5	6	17:19	19
5	Al-Suqoor	16	5	4	7	16:20	19
6	Al-Anwar	16	5	4	7	18:26	19
7	Al Borouq	16	3	9	4	14:15	18
8	Al Ansar	16	4	2	10	15:26	14
9	Wefaq Ajdabiya	16	4	4	8	9:14	13

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ahly Benghazi	14	11	1	2	31:6	34
2	Al Hilal Benghazi	14	11	1	2	30:12	34
3	Al Sadaqa	14	7	3	4	16:13	24
4	Al Taawun	14	6	4	4	19:14	22
5	Al-Andalus	14	5	3	6	17:18	18
6	Al Murooj SC	14	3	3	8	14:25	12
7	Al Branes	14	2	2	10	11:28	8
8	Al Mahdia	14	1	3	10	8:30	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Asswehly	16	12	4	0	36:12	40
2	Olympic Azzaweya	16	11	4	1	28:13	37
3	Al-Ittihad	16	8	4	4	24:10	28
4	Al-Majd	16	6	3	7	25:29	21
5	Shabab Al-Ghar	16	4	8	4	18:18	20
6	Abu Salim	16	6	2	8	20:24	20
7	Al Bashaer	16	4	5	7	19:21	17
8	Al Tirsana	16	3	6	7	22:22	15
9	Al Nahda	16	0	0	16	5:48	-3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ahly Tripoli	16	13	3	0	38:4	42
2	Al Madina	16	10	4	2	27:14	34
3	Al Ittihad Misurata	16	6	5	5	14:14	23
4	Al Watan	16	5	5	6	19:22	19
5	Al Malaab El Libby	16	3	9	4	13:15	18
6	Al-Khmes	16	5	1	10	11:20	16
7	Abi Al Ashar	16	3	6	7	10:18	15
8	Al Dahra	16	3	6	7	11:22	15
9	Asaria	16	3	3	10	13:27	12