Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alacranes de Durango vs Piratas

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Venegas J.
46'
Sub
Gonzalez J. In: Reyes Olguin J. I.
Out: Gonzalez J.
54'
Sub
Vega Hernandez C. In: Castillo J.
Out: Vega Hernandez C.

AI Match Summary

Piratas in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Piratas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Alacranes de Durango
35%
Draws
40%
Piratas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Piratas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Alacranes de Durango have won more games recently than Piratas.
  • Model gives Alacranes de Durango a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 20%
Piratas Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alacranes de Durango Piratas
Matches Played 31 10
Wins 17 4
Draws 8 3
Losses 6 3
Goals Scored 1.68 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.71 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Piratas
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Piratas Compare

Top Goalscorer Doumbouya I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Venegas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 42 / 100
Piratas 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alacranes de Durango Piratas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Piratas's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 10 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Alacranes de Durango remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Piratas
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alacranes de Durango

(Home)
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2
Leones Negros
Page 1 of 7

Piratas

(Away)
25 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Piratas
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
11 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 1
Piratas
06 Sept
Piratas
4 : 1
Correcaminos
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1
Piratas
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Atletico Morelia 10 7 0 3 20:11 21
2 Atletico La Paz 10 6 2 2 23:11 20
3 Leones Negros 10 6 2 2 21:13 20
4 Zacatecas Mineros 10 5 2 3 21:15 17
5 Venados FC 10 5 1 4 24:20 16
6 Piratas 10 4 3 3 12:10 15
7 Correcaminos 10 4 3 3 19:18 15
8 Cancun 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
9 Tapatio 9 4 2 3 17:14 14
10 Alacranes de Durango 10 4 2 4 7:9 14
11 Dorados de Sinaloa 10 3 4 3 17:14 13
12 Tlaxcala 10 3 2 5 18:22 11
13 Jaiba Brava 10 3 2 5 11:16 11
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 8:18 10
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 11:18 7
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 9 1 0 8 5:28 3
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)