Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A Estadio Francisco Zarco

Alacranes de Durango

3 - 1

Reboceros de La Piedad

Our Tip

Match Events

Munoz B.

32'

64'

Valenzuela A.

(Penalty)

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alacranes de Durango in this Liga Premier Serie A matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alacranes de Durango.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Alacranes de Durango

Draws

Reboceros de La Piedad

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alacranes de Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Alacranes de Durango lately — more wins on the board than Reboceros de La Piedad.
Alacranes de Durango are the model's pick here, at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
These two have met 5 times recently and Alacranes de Durango have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 17%

Reboceros de La Piedad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alacranes de Durango	Reboceros de La Piedad
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	20	8
Draws	6	1
Losses	3	21
Goals Scored	2.5	2.13
Goals Conceded	0.63	3
Expected Goals (xG)	2.50	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Reboceros de La Piedad

Possession: 56% - 48% Cards: 0 - 1

3:1

Oct 12, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Reboceros de La Piedad vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 60% - 41% Cards: 3 - 0

0:5

Jan 23, 2021 Liga Premier Serie A

Alacranes de Durango vs Reboceros de La Piedad

Possession: 50% - 56% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Sep 27, 2020 Liga Premier Serie A

Reboceros de La Piedad vs Alacranes de Durango

Possession: 41% - 57% Cards: 2 - 4

2:4

Feb 6, 2011 Liga de Expansion MX

Alacranes de Durango vs Reboceros de La Piedad

Possession: 42% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alacranes de Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ontiveros A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.92

Avg xA / game 1.25

Reboceros de La Piedad Compare

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 84 / 100

Reboceros de La Piedad 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alacranes de Durango Reboceros de La Piedad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Reboceros de La Piedad let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Alacranes de Durango went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Reboceros de La Piedad

2.5 Goals Scored 2.13

0.63 Goals Conceded 3

88% Over 1.5 100%

75% Over 2.5 88%

38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17