Sport Picks

Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango

Tapatio

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alacranes de Durango host Tapatio in the Liga de Expansion MX. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Alacranes de Durango at 1.55 goals for, 0.77 against; Tapatio at 1.9 for, 1.66 against. Head-to-head, Alacranes de Durango have won 1 to Tapatio's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2023, ending 2:5. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.56, favoring Alacranes de Durango. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%

Alacranes de Durango

20%

Draws

23%

Tapatio

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alacranes de Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Alacranes de Durango come out ahead of Tapatio on wins alone.
Alacranes de Durango are the model's pick here, at 70%.
Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Tapatio have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 15%

Tapatio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alacranes de Durango	Tapatio
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	16	12
Draws	9	5
Losses	6	12
Goals Scored	1.55	1.9
Goals Conceded	0.77	1.66
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX

Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio

2:5

Jun 29, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX

Tapatio vs Alacranes de Durango

3:1

Jan 12, 2008 Liga de Expansion MX

Alacranes de Durango vs Tapatio

1:0

Aug 4, 2007 Liga de Expansion MX

Tapatio vs Alacranes de Durango

1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alacranes de Durango 66 / 100

Tapatio 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alacranes de Durango Tapatio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alacranes de Durango Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tapatio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.

Alacranes de Durango found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Solid form: Alacranes de Durango remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Alacranes de Durango VS Tapatio

0.63 Goals Scored 2

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88

63% Over 1.5 88%

25% Over 2.5 75%

0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History