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Alagoinhas vs Bahia

Brazil Brazil

Baiano Carneiro, Alagoinhas
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Everaldo
30'
Wanderson
38' Event
Rodrigo Nestor

AI Match Summary

Bahia in this Baiano matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Alagoinhas
30%
Draws
61%
Bahia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bahia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bahia lately — more wins on the board than Alagoinhas.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on Bahia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Alagoinhas Clean Sheet 11%
Bahia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alagoinhas Bahia
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 3 15
Draws 8 11
Losses 18 8
Goals Scored 0.55 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Baiano
Alagoinhas vs Bahia
2:4
Jan 17, 2025 Baiano
Bahia vs Alagoinhas
0:1
Jan 21, 2024 Baiano
Alagoinhas vs Bahia
3:3
Feb 18, 2023 Copa do Nordeste
Alagoinhas vs Bahia
1:2
Jan 19, 2023 Baiano
Bahia vs Alagoinhas
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alagoinhas Compare

Top Goalscorer Douglas Rocha Araujo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Everson Ribeiro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Bahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Everaldo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodrigo Nestor
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alagoinhas 10 / 100
Bahia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alagoinhas Bahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:2
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Bahia has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Alagoinhas's goal record stands at 41% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Alagoinhas has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alagoinhas VS Bahia
0.25 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alagoinhas

(Home)
14 Jun
Alagoinhas
1 : 7
CSA
31 May
Juazeirense
0 : 0
Alagoinhas
24 May
Clube Sociedade Esportiva
0 : 0
Alagoinhas
17 May
Alagoinhas
0 : 1
Jacuipense
10 May
ASA
3 : 0
Alagoinhas
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Bahia

(Away)
14 Sept
Bahia
2 : 1
Remo
05 Sept
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
30 Aug
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
16 Aug
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3
Bahia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bahia 9 7 2 0 26:9 23
2 Vitoria 9 4 4 1 13:4 16
3 Jacuipense 9 3 4 2 11:10 13
4 Juazeirense 9 3 4 2 7:9 13
5 Jequie 9 3 3 3 15:13 12
6 Porto-BA 9 2 5 2 10:12 11
7 Barcelona FC 9 2 4 3 7:15 10
8 Galicia 9 3 0 6 7:14 9
9 Bahia de Feira 9 2 3 4 11:12 9
10 Alagoinhas 9 0 3 6 5:14 3
Promotion - Baiano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Baiano 2 2027 (Main)