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Alajuelense vs San Carlos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
McDonald J. In: Martinez B.
Out: McDonald J.
18'
Paz D.
22'
Cerdas K.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Division game between Alajuelense and San Carlos finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Carlos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Alajuelense
15%
Draws
54%
San Carlos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Carlos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Alajuelense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Alajuelense's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Primera Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Alajuelense have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 20%
San Carlos Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense San Carlos
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 15 11
Draws 7 3
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.65 1.04
Goals Conceded 1 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
0:1
Mar 8, 2026 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Alajuelense
0:2
Jan 25, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Primera Division
San Carlos vs Alajuelense
0:2
Sep 17, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs San Carlos
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

San Carlos Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivera Stuart J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 40 / 100
San Carlos 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense San Carlos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alajuelense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Alajuelense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

San Carlos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS San Carlos
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Alajuelense
0 : 2
Saprissa
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San Carlos

(Away)
21 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Cartagines
12 Sept
Zeledon
0 : 2
San Carlos
07 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Sporting FC
30 Aug
San Carlos
1 : 2
Puntarenas FC
24 Aug
Alajuelense
0 : 1
San Carlos
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saprissa 9 7 0 2 20:10 21
2 Cartagines 9 6 0 3 18:10 18
3 Sporting FC 9 5 2 2 16:8 17
4 San Carlos 9 5 0 4 8:9 15
5 Alajuelense 9 4 2 3 15:10 14
6 Inter San Carlos 9 4 2 3 9:12 14
7 Puntarenas FC 9 3 2 4 8:13 11
8 Zeledon 9 2 2 5 7:14 8
9 Herediano 9 2 1 6 8:14 7
10 Escorpiones 9 1 1 7 6:15 4
Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs)