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Alajuelense vs Xelaju

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Alajuelense at 1.25 goals for, 0.88 against; Xelaju at 1.88 for, 1.13 against. Past meetings favor Alajuelense slightly — 1-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 4, 2025, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.19 - 1.38) back Alajuelense to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Alajuelense
22%
Draws
18%
Xelaju
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Xelaju have won more games recently than Alajuelense.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Alajuelense taking it.
  • Xelaju arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 17%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Xelaju
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 4, 2025 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Xelaju vs Alajuelense
1:2
Nov 27, 2025 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alajuelense vs Xelaju
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 57 / 100
Xelaju 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Xelaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Xelaju has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Alajuelense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Xelaju
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
26 Jul
Sporting FC
1 : 1
Alajuelense
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
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Xelaju

(Away)
25 Jul
Deportivo San Pedro
1 : 0
Xelaju
24 May
Xelaju
1 : 2
Municipal
17 May
Municipal
4 : 1
Xelaju
11 May
Xelaju
2 : 0
Comunicaciones
08 May
Comunicaciones
2 : 2
Xelaju
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Xelaju00000:00
2Alajuelense00000:00
3Luis Angel Firpo00000:00
4Diriangen00000:00
5Plaza Amador00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano00000:00
2Marathon00000:00
3Alianza FC00000:00
4Esteli00000:00
5Antigua00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Saprissa00000:00
2Olimpia00000:00
3Alianza00000:00
4Deportivo Mixco00000:00
5UMECIT00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Municipal00000:00
2Cartagines00000:00
3Motagua00000:00
4FAS00000:00
5Verdes00000:00
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)