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Alajuelense vs Zeledon

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Alvarado J.
46'
Sub
Rodriguez S. In: Mendez G.
Out: Rodriguez S.
46'
Sub
Salazar A. In: van der Putten S.
Out: Salazar A.

AI Match Summary

Alajuelense in this Primera Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alajuelense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Alajuelense
6%
Draws
4%
Zeledon
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Alajuelense have won more games recently than Zeledon.
  • Alajuelense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 20%
Zeledon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alajuelense Zeledon
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 4
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.88 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Zeledon
3:0
Jan 18, 2026 Primera Division
Zeledon vs Alajuelense
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Zeledon
3:2
Sep 7, 2025 Primera Division
Zeledon vs Alajuelense
2:1
Apr 1, 2025 Primera Division
Zeledon vs Alajuelense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarado J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zaldivar A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Zeledon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alajuelense 85 / 100
Zeledon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alajuelense Zeledon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alajuelense found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Zeledon let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Alajuelense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alajuelense VS Zeledon
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Alajuelense

(Home)
26 Jul
Sporting FC
1 : 1
Alajuelense
12 Jul
Alajuelense
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
24 Apr
Alajuelense
5 : 2
Puntarenas FC
19 Apr
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Saprissa
Page 1 of 6

Zeledon

(Away)
25 Jul
Saprissa
5 : 1
Zeledon
25 Apr
San Carlos
1 : 1
Zeledon
23 Apr
Zeledon
0 : 1
Herediano
18 Apr
Guadalupe
1 : 0
Zeledon
12 Apr
Zeledon
3 : 3
Puntarenas FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Herediano18122426:1038
2Saprissa18104434:1934
3Liberia18103524:1833
4Cartagines18102626:2032
5Alajuelense1875628:2026
6Sporting FC1864816:2122
7San Carlos1863921:2521
8Puntarenas FC18441022:2916
9Zeledon1828819:3014
10Guadalupe18351013:3714
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Primera Division 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)