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Alaves B vs Elgoibar

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 game between Alaves B and Elgoibar finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elgoibar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Alaves B
20%
Draws
15%
Elgoibar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alaves B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alaves B come out ahead of Elgoibar on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Alaves B's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Alaves B Clean Sheet 20%
Elgoibar Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves B Elgoibar
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 7 11
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.41 0.7
Goals Conceded 0.69 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves B vs Elgoibar
5:0
Sep 1, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Alaves B
0:0
Mar 23, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves B vs Elgoibar
0:1
Nov 3, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Alaves B
0:2
Feb 18, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Alaves B
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves B 85 / 100
Elgoibar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves B Elgoibar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves B scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Elgoibar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Alaves B remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Alaves B VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves B

(Home)
20 Sept
Alaves B
3 : 1
Real Oviedo B
13 Sept
Llanera
1 : 2
Alaves B
05 Sept
Alaves B
0 : 2
Coruxo FC
22 Aug
Alaves B
1 : 2
Amorebieta
21 Aug
Naxara
0 : 1
Alaves B
Page 1 of 6

Elgoibar

(Away)
15 Jul
Elgoibar
0 : 5
Real Sociedad
10 May
Zamudio
0 : 0
Elgoibar
03 May
Elgoibar
0 : 1
Bermeo
26 Apr
Beasain
2 : 1
Elgoibar
17 Apr
Elgoibar
0 : 0
Santutxu FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Laudio 38 23 12 3 65:29 81
2 Arenas Getxo 38 23 9 6 54:24 78
3 Portugalete 38 21 10 7 75:38 73
4 Leioa 38 20 11 7 43:28 71
5 Gernika Club 38 19 12 7 58:31 69
6 Zalla UC 38 18 13 7 51:36 67
7 Bermeo 38 12 16 10 52:47 52
8 SCD Durango 38 11 15 12 39:44 48
9 Zamudio 38 11 14 13 41:52 47
10 Beasain 38 11 14 13 38:41 47
11 Lagun Onak 38 11 13 14 36:41 46
12 Basconia 38 13 6 19 49:59 45
13 Pasaia 38 10 13 15 43:64 43
14 Alaves B 38 11 10 17 40:48 43
15 Elgoibar 38 10 13 15 35:42 43
16 Santutxu FC 38 10 11 17 39:55 41
17 Balmaseda 38 11 7 20 49:57 40
18 Deportivo Getxo 38 9 12 17 34:49 39
19 Aurrera de Vitoria 38 7 8 23 27:57 29
20 Anaitasuna FT 38 6 7 25 35:61 25
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)