Sport Picks
Alaves C vs Aurrera de Vitoria
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 
Match Events
15'
15'
Bustero A.
77'
77'
Saenz I.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Alaves C and Aurrera de Vitoria finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
15%
53%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Aurrera de Vitoria have managed 1.2 goals a game lately — Alaves C are scoring more at 1.86.
- Win probability leans Aurrera de Vitoria's way, sitting at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 22%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alaves C | Aurrera de Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 14 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 8 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.86 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Alaves C
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alaves C Compare
Top Goalscorer Saenz I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Aurrera de Vitoria Compare
Top Goalscorer Bustero A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alaves C 24 / 100
Aurrera de Vitoria 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alaves C Aurrera de Vitoria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alaves C found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).
Aurrera de Vitoria has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.
Alaves C went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alaves C VS Aurrera de Vitoria
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Alaves C
(Home) 22 Aug
Beasain
3 : 1 Alaves C
09 May
Alaves C
1 : 2 Portugalete
03 May
San Ignacio
0 : 1 Alaves C
26 Apr
Alaves C
2 : 3 Derio
16 Apr
Touring KE
1 : 2 Alaves C
Page 1 of 6
09 May
Alaves C
1 : 2 Portugalete
26 Apr
Alaves C
2 : 3 Derio
11 Apr
Alaves C
5 : 1 Zarautz KE
01 Apr
Alaves C
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
21 Mar
Alaves C
3 : 1 Eibar C
Page 1 of 3
Aurrera de Vitoria
(Away) 29 Aug
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 0 Amorebieta
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 SD Deusto
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
25 Apr
Aurrera de Vitoria
0 : 1 San Ignacio
18 Apr
Derio
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
18 Apr
Derio
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
01 Apr
Alaves C
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
15 Mar
Eibar C
0 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
28 Feb
SCD Durango
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 70:29 | 78 |
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50:34 | 61 |
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 54:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Touring KE | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad C | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48:39 | 55 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37:27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 42:41 | 54 |
| 9 | Alaves C | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57:40 | 53 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56:61 | 45 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35:36 | 44 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32:45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44:53 | 36 |
| 14 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Anorga | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37:59 | 34 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 42:59 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30:60 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26:49 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
