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Alaves C vs Portugalete - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Alaves C Logo

Alaves C

1 - 2
FT
Portugalete Logo

Portugalete

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Crespo G.
19' Event
Ortiz M.
87' Event
Saenz I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Portugalete in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Portugalete.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Alaves C
20%
Draws
40%
Portugalete
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Portugalete lately — more wins on the board than Alaves C.
  • Win probability leans Alaves C's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 17%
Portugalete Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alaves C Portugalete
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 15 19
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 2.03 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Portugalete
1:2
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Alaves C
2:1
Mar 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Portugalete vs Alaves C
1:1
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Portugalete
0:1
May 11, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Portugalete
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Saenz I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Crespo G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ortiz M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alaves C 75 / 100
Portugalete 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alaves C Portugalete

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves C Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alaves C found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (31 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Alaves C went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Portugalete conceded in 56% of 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Alaves C VS Portugalete
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alaves C

(Home)
04 Oct
Alaves C
5 : 1
Sodupe
26 Sept
Alaves C
1 : 2
Touring KE
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Alaves C
3 : 0
Amurrio Club
05 Sept
Eibar C
1 : 1
Alaves C
Page 1 of 7

Portugalete

(Away)
03 Oct
Portugalete
0 : 2
Alaves B
27 Sept
Bergantinos
3 : 2
Portugalete
19 Sept
Portugalete
2 : 1
Coruxo FC
13 Sept
Portugalete
0 : 0
Compostela
05 Sept
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)