Sport Picks
Alaves vs Atl. Madrid - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
LaLiga Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz 
AI Match Summary
Alaves host Atl. Madrid in the LaLiga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Alaves have averaged 1.66 scored and 1.45 conceded recently, against Atl. Madrid's 1.79 scored and 1.59 conceded. Past meetings favor Atl. Madrid slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 18, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.19, favoring Alaves. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Atl. Madrid carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alaves | Atl. Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 2 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.66 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.45 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alaves found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).
Atl. Madrid let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Alaves stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Alaves
(Home)Atl. Madrid
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28:6 | 18 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 15 |
| 3 | Atl. Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 13 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 13 |
| 5 | Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 6 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:6 | 10 |
| 7 | Dep. A Coruna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:7 | 9 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 9 | Ath Bilbao | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11:16 | 7 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:11 | 7 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:12 | 7 |
| 14 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | 5 |
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2:10 | 4 |
| 18 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:8 | 3 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 2 |
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8:16 | 2 |
