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Alba vs Lavagnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Yanken S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 game between Alba and Lavagnese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Alba
20%
Draws
10%
Lavagnese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alba come out ahead of Lavagnese on wins alone.
  • Alba are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Alba Clean Sheet 68%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alba Lavagnese
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 8 7
Draws 5 11
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Alba vs Lavagnese
1:0
Sep 20, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Alba
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alba Compare

Top Goalscorer Yanken S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Lavagnese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alba 86 / 100
Lavagnese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alba Lavagnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lavagnese conceded in 80% of 35 recent games.

Alba found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Alba went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lavagnese
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alba

(Home)
12 May
Derthona FbC
3 : 0
Alba
05 May
Pinerolo
0 : 2
Alba
28 Apr
Alba
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
21 Apr
PDHA
1 : 2
Alba
14 Apr
Alba
3 : 3
AC Chieri
Page 1 of 6

Lavagnese

(Away)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alcione Milano 38 23 10 5 70:27 79
2 Chisola 38 21 9 8 64:37 72
3 Varese FC 38 18 12 8 49:33 66
4 Vado 38 17 14 7 51:28 65
5 NovaRomentin 38 18 11 9 58:38 65
6 Bra 38 18 11 9 47:30 65
7 Ligorna 38 17 12 9 44:37 63
8 Asti Calcio 38 16 11 11 42:33 59
9 Albenga 38 15 15 8 51:33 58
10 Sanremese 38 13 13 12 34:33 52
11 Fezzanese 38 14 9 15 42:50 51
12 Gozzano 38 10 15 13 35:38 45
13 Lavagnese 38 11 11 16 46:47 44
14 Vogherese 38 10 12 16 42:57 42
15 Derthona FbC 38 9 14 15 34:52 41
16 AC Chieri 38 8 15 15 39:52 39
17 Pinerolo 38 8 13 17 25:44 37
18 Alba 38 10 7 21 39:63 37
19 PDHA 38 5 7 26 25:63 22
20 Borgosesia Calcio 38 5 7 26 25:67 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2023/2024 (Play Out)