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Alcains vs Uniao de Coimbra

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alcains play Uniao de Coimbra in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alcains averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Uniao de Coimbra averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Alcains won 0, Uniao de Coimbra won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 29, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Alcains and 1.44 for Uniao de Coimbra. This points to a Uniao de Coimbra double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Alcains
22%
Draws
44%
Uniao de Coimbra
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Uniao de Coimbra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Alcains picked up more points recently compared to Uniao de Coimbra.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Alcains Clean Sheet 16%
Uniao de Coimbra Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alcains Uniao de Coimbra
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 7
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 0.9 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alcains vs Uniao de Coimbra
0:1
Dec 8, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao de Coimbra vs Alcains
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alcains Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Uniao de Coimbra Compare

Top Goalscorer Baptista D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alcains 34 / 100
Uniao de Coimbra 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alcains Uniao de Coimbra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Uniao de Coimbra or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alcains attacking → ← attacking Uniao de Coimbra

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alcains scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Uniao de Coimbra let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 0.50 goals.

Alcains went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Uniao de Coimbra lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 31
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1O Elvas CAD26205141:1065
2Fatima26147530:1249
3Arronches Benfica26139427:1748
4GD Peniche26109731:2339
5Os Marialvas26910730:2837
6Mortagua FC26813523:2137
7Marinhense2699824:2136
8Alverca B2698928:2535
9SB Castelo Branco26810823:2134
10SC Pombal26881029:3432
11Uniao de Coimbra26671326:4425
12Sertanense26491323:3321
13Alcains26461617:3618
14Pero Pinheiro26261812:3912