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Alcantarilla vs Montecasillas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Alcantarilla Logo

Alcantarilla

2 - 1
FT
Montecasillas Logo

Montecasillas

Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Martinez S.
34' Event
Amhot A.
87' Event
Nicolas N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 game between Alcantarilla and Montecasillas finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alcantarilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Alcantarilla
30%
Draws
18%
Montecasillas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alcantarilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Alcantarilla carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Alcantarilla a 52% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Alcantarilla Clean Sheet 68%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alcantarilla Montecasillas
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 9 2
Losses 15 21
Goals Scored 0.86 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.56 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Alcantarilla vs Montecasillas
2:1
Nov 4, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Alcantarilla
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alcantarilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Amhot A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nicolas N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alcantarilla 95 / 100
Montecasillas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alcantarilla Montecasillas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alcantarilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montecasillas has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Alcantarilla remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Alcantarilla's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 36 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Alcantarilla VS -
0.38 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Alcantarilla

(Home)
04 Oct
Alcantarilla
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
27 Sept
Bala Azul
0 : 1
Alcantarilla
20 Sept
Alcantarilla
2 : 0
Cotillas CD
12 Sept
Alcantarilla
0 : 0
CA Pulpileno
06 Sept
Aguilas FC B
1 : 1
Alcantarilla
Page 1 of 8

Montecasillas

(Away)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)