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Alcazar vs Madridejos

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Tercera Division - Group 18 2013/2014
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 18 2013/2014 game between Alcazar and Madridejos finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Madridejos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Alcazar
20%
Draws
64%
Madridejos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Madridejos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Madridejos carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Madridejos's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 18 2013/2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Madridejos have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Alcazar Clean Sheet 20%
Madridejos Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alcazar Madridejos
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 1 7
Draws 4 5
Losses 25 19
Goals Scored 0.6 0.97
Goals Conceded 3.37 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Alcazar vs Madridejos
0:3
Sep 13, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Madridejos vs Alcazar
2:0
Mar 9, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Alcazar vs Madridejos
0:1
Oct 27, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Madridejos vs Alcazar
1:0
Feb 24, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Madridejos vs Alcazar
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alcazar 10 / 100
Madridejos 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alcazar Madridejos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Madridejos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madridejos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Difficult form: Madridejos registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Alcazar found the back of the net in 37% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Madridejos
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alcazar

(Home)
16 May
Alcazar
2 : 3
Villarrobledo
10 May
Albacete B
12 : 0
Alcazar
02 May
Alcazar
0 : 1
Quintanar del Rey
26 Apr
Manzanares
4 : 0
Alcazar
19 Apr
Alcazar
0 : 0
Atletico Ibanes
Page 1 of 6

Madridejos

(Away)
03 Jun
Madridejos
4 : 2
Manzanares
30 May
La Solana
3 : 2
Madridejos
23 May
Madridejos
2 : 3
Almagro
15 May
Atletico Ibanes
2 : 0
Madridejos
08 May
Madridejos
1 : 1
UD Almansa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Puertollano 38 31 5 2 88:18 98
2 Socuellamos 38 25 8 5 72:26 83
3 Villarrobledo 38 22 10 6 80:32 76
4 UD Almansa 38 20 12 6 53:36 72
5 CF Talavera 38 21 9 8 72:34 72
6 Villarrubia 38 16 10 12 48:56 58
7 CD Pedroneras 38 14 12 12 42:50 54
8 La Gineta 38 12 12 14 51:55 48
9 Atletico Ibanes 38 11 14 13 44:50 47
10 Quintanar del Rey 38 12 11 15 44:56 47
11 Manzanares 38 11 12 15 41:46 45
12 Albacete B 38 10 13 15 45:58 43
13 Manchego Ciudad Real 38 10 13 15 43:54 43
14 Hellin Deportivo 38 10 13 15 35:40 43
15 Alcazar 38 11 8 19 46:56 41
16 Mora CF 38 12 4 22 37:63 40
17 Madridejos 38 8 14 16 30:41 38
18 Illescas 38 8 12 18 39:59 36
19 Azuqueca 38 9 9 20 36:53 36
20 EF Zona 5 Albacete 38 2 9 27 34:97 15
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2013/2014 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2013/2014 (Main)