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Alcobendas vs Navalcarnero

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Tercera Division - Group 7 2019/2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 7 2019/2020 game between Alcobendas and Navalcarnero finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Navalcarnero.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Alcobendas
30%
Draws
27%
Navalcarnero
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alcobendas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Navalcarnero carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Alcobendas are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 7 2019/2020 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Navalcarnero have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Alcobendas Clean Sheet 20%
Navalcarnero Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alcobendas Navalcarnero
Matches Played 20 28
Wins 7 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.55 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Alcobendas vs Navalcarnero
0:3
Sep 15, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Navalcarnero vs Alcobendas
2:1
Apr 19, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Navalcarnero vs Alcobendas
1:1
Dec 6, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Alcobendas vs Navalcarnero
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alcobendas 42 / 100
Navalcarnero 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alcobendas Navalcarnero

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Alcobendas stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Alcobendas scored in 70% of their last 20 games.

Navalcarnero has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

- VS Navalcarnero
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Alcobendas

(Home)
08 Mar
Trival Valderas
2 : 2
Alcobendas
29 Feb
Alcobendas
5 : 0
RSD Alcala
23 Feb
Villaverde San Andres
0 : 1
Alcobendas
16 Feb
Alcobendas
1 : 1
AD Torrejon
09 Feb
El Alamo
1 : 2
Alcobendas
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Navalcarnero

(Away)
09 Sept
CF Talavera
0 : 2
Navalcarnero
06 Sept
Valladolid Promesas
1 : 0
Navalcarnero
29 Aug
Salamanca CF UDS
1 : 0
Navalcarnero
08 Aug
Alcorcon
1 : 1
Navalcarnero
05 Aug
Toledo
1 : 3
Navalcarnero
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Navalcarnero 28 16 5 7 44:22 53
2 Union Adarve 28 14 5 9 43:35 47
3 Alcorcon B 28 12 11 5 40:26 47
4 RSD Alcala 28 13 6 9 41:32 45
5 Trival Valderas 28 12 7 9 30:27 43
6 Leganes B 28 11 9 8 49:41 42
7 CD Mostoles 28 12 6 10 42:36 42
8 Pozuelo de Alarcon 28 11 7 10 36:38 40
9 Rayo Vallecano B 28 10 9 9 47:44 39
10 Flat Earth FC 28 11 9 8 36:34 39
11 Santa Ana 28 11 5 12 42:46 38
12 Carabanchel 28 9 9 10 32:32 36
13 Atletico Pinto 28 8 11 9 40:38 35
14 AD Torrejon 28 9 8 11 27:32 35
15 El Alamo 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
16 Moratalaz 28 8 10 10 29:37 34
17 San Fernando de Henares 28 8 9 11 38:42 33
18 Alcobendas 28 8 9 11 35:38 33
19 Parla 28 4 10 14 30:50 22
20 Villaverde San Andres 28 3 10 15 16:41 19
Promotion - Tercera Division - Group 1 2019/2020 (Promotion - Play Offs)