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Alcudia vs Binissalem - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Soper M.
90' Event
Ripoll M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Alcudia
15%
Draws
28%
Binissalem
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alcudia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Alcudia have won more games recently than Binissalem.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Alcudia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Alcudia Clean Sheet 20%
Binissalem Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alcudia Binissalem
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 4 8
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.31 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.79 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alcudia vs Binissalem
1:1
Dec 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Binissalem vs Alcudia
1:0
Apr 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Binissalem vs Alcudia
0:1
Dec 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alcudia vs Binissalem
2:1
May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Alcudia vs Binissalem
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alcudia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Binissalem Compare

Top Goalscorer Soper M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alcudia 49 / 100
Binissalem 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alcudia Binissalem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alcudia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alcudia found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Binissalem's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Binissalem's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Alcudia VS Binissalem
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alcudia

(Home)
04 Oct
Cardassar
6 : 2
Alcudia
26 Sept
Constancia
2 : 0
Alcudia
19 Sept
Alcudia
1 : 2
Santanyi
12 Sept
Arenal
1 : 2
Alcudia
06 Sept
Alcudia
5 : 0
Inter Ibiza
Page 1 of 6

Binissalem

(Away)
03 Oct
Binissalem
3 : 0
Sineu
27 Sept
Migjorn
1 : 0
Binissalem
18 Sept
Binissalem
0 : 3
Platges de Calvia
12 Sept
Binissalem
1 : 3
Cardassar
05 Sept
Manacor
2 : 1
Binissalem
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 34 26 6 2 105:22 84
2 Manacor 34 24 5 5 71:39 77
3 Pena Deportiva 34 20 8 6 69:30 68
4 Constancia 34 19 5 10 62:29 62
5 Llosetense 34 16 10 8 59:40 58
6 Formentera 34 13 13 8 40:29 52
7 Inter Ibiza 34 15 5 14 42:43 50
8 Mercadal 34 15 4 15 31:45 49
9 Cardassar 34 12 8 14 38:55 44
10 Platges de Calvia 34 12 6 16 41:43 42
11 Binissalem 34 10 11 13 26:34 41
12 Santanyi 34 11 8 15 43:58 41
13 Alcudia 34 11 5 18 37:62 38
14 CD Son Cladera 34 11 5 18 41:63 38
15 Portmany 34 8 6 20 25:50 30
16 Collerense 34 6 10 18 41:64 28
17 Felanitx 34 5 11 18 32:62 26
18 Rotlet Molinar 34 5 8 21 34:69 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2025/2026 (Play Offs)