Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Alacranes de Durango - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
20'
20'
Bustos J.
Assist: Andrey Marcos
26'
26'
Dominguez R.
29'
29'
Paz Vasquez O.
AI Match Summary
Alebrijes de Oaxaca in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
15%
53%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alacranes de Durango
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
32%
/ Low Confidence
- Alacranes de Durango have won more games recently than Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
- Win probability leans Alebrijes de Oaxaca's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 68%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Alacranes de Durango |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 0.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 11, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Alacranes de Durango
1:0
Feb 15, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1:1
Sep 9, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Alacranes de Durango
4:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Top Goalscorer Bustos J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 50 / 100
Alacranes de Durango 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alacranes de Durango
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alebrijes de Oaxaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 2.33 goals.
Alacranes de Durango has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Alacranes de Durango
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1 Correcaminos
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1 Correcaminos
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
Alacranes de Durango
(Away) 04 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
16 Aug
Cancun
2 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
01 Aug
Atletico La Paz
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
