Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
3'
3'
Robles A.
Assist: Torres E.
33'
33'
Tecpanecatl A.
35'
35'
Zurita Jimenez U.
AI Match Summary
Atletico La Paz in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico La Paz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
15%
65%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Atletico La Paz have won more games recently than Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
- 65% — that's where the model lands on Atletico La Paz taking it.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Atletico La Paz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 10 |
| Losses | 14 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.69 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz
1:3
Mar 21, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4:0
Oct 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz
2:2
Oct 19, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Robles A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zurita Jimenez U.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 / 100
Atletico La Paz 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Atletico La Paz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Atletico La Paz has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Atletico La Paz
1 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 Jul
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 3
Atletico La Paz
(Away) 03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
08 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 5 Atletico La Paz
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
