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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Cruz Azul Hidalgo in the Liga de Expansion MX. This one's hard to separate. Alebrijes de Oaxaca have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.9 conceded recently, against Cruz Azul Hidalgo's 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded. Head-to-head, Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 1 to Cruz Azul Hidalgo's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 1, 2014, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.44, favoring Cruz Azul Hidalgo. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
20%
Draws
20%
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Cruz Azul Hidalgo average 1.24 goals a game right now, well clear of Alebrijes de Oaxaca's 1.13.
  • Model gives Alebrijes de Oaxaca a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 16%
Cruz Azul Hidalgo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alebrijes de Oaxaca Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 11
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2014 Liga de Expansion MX
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:0
Aug 17, 2013 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 36 / 100
Cruz Azul Hidalgo 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Cruz Azul Hidalgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

(Home)
09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1
Correcaminos
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3
Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0
Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 6

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

(Away)
03 Oct
Correcaminos
0 : 0
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2
Leones Negros
18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 1
Piratas
06 Sept
Cancun
6 : 0
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leones Negros 11 7 2 2 27:16 23
2 Club Atletico Morelia 11 7 1 3 21:12 22
3 Atletico La Paz 11 6 2 3 24:13 20
4 Venados FC 11 6 1 4 26:21 19
5 Piratas 11 5 3 3 16:10 18
6 Zacatecas Mineros 11 5 2 4 23:19 17
7 Cancun 11 5 2 4 19:15 17
8 Alacranes de Durango 11 5 2 4 11:11 17
9 Correcaminos 12 4 4 4 20:20 16
10 Tapatio 10 4 2 4 17:15 14
11 Dorados de Sinaloa 11 3 4 4 20:20 13
12 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 4 1 7 10:23 13
13 Tlaxcala 11 3 3 5 19:23 12
14 Jaiba Brava 11 3 2 6 12:19 11
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 11 1 5 5 11:18 8
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 10 2 0 8 8:29 6
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)