Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
21'
21'
Villa P.
27'
27'
Parra R.
37'
37'
Fadika B.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatio finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Tapatio carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Tapatio a 34% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Tapatio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.82 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
1:1
Mar 13, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
4:3
Oct 3, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0:1
Feb 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
1:3
Aug 17, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
6:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Top Goalscorer Fadika B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Tapatio Compare
Top Goalscorer Garcia G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 / 100
Tapatio 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Tapatio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tapatio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tapatio let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).
Tapatio lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Tapatio
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1 Correcaminos
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1 Correcaminos
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
Tapatio
(Away) 04 Oct
Cancun
1 : 0 Tapatio
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Cancun
1 : 0 Tapatio
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
15 Aug
Correcaminos
2 : 3 Tapatio
08 Aug
Venados FC
3 : 2 Tapatio
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
