Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
14'
14'
Mascorro H.
28'
28'
Ledesma L.
32'
32'
Morales F.
AI Match Summary
Alebrijes de Oaxaca in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tapatio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Tapatio lately — more wins on the board than Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
- Tapatio are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 15%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Tapatio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
1:1
Mar 13, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
4:3
Oct 3, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0:1
Feb 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatio
1:3
Aug 17, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
6:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Top Goalscorer Mascorro H.
1 Goals Assists Leader Morales F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Tapatio Compare
Top Goalscorer Ledesma L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Moragrega V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 11 / 100
Tapatio 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Tapatio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tapatio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Tapatio conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Tapatio
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 Jul
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 3
Tapatio
(Away) 20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
24 Aug
Tapatio
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
15 Aug
Correcaminos
2 : 3 Tapatio
08 Aug
Venados FC
3 : 2 Tapatio
03 Jul
Club Leon
4 : 2 Tapatio
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
