Sport Picks
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlan de Morelos Prediction & H2H Stats
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca, Oaxaca de Juárez 
Match Events
17'
17'
Sub
Rodriguez S. In: Moreno A.
Out: Rodriguez S.
21'
21'
Villalpando D.
44'
44'
Olvera G.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tepatitlan de Morelos finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca haven't matched Tepatitlan de Morelos's recent run of results.
- 43% — that's where the model lands on Alebrijes de Oaxaca taking it.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 20%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 14, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:0
Apr 4, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4:0
Oct 27, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Top Goalscorer Andrey Marcos
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 40 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alebrijes de Oaxaca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Tepatitlan de Morelos has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Difficult form: Tepatitlan de Morelos registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Alebrijes de Oaxaca VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 3.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Home) 04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 Jul
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
Page 1 of 3
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 03 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
19 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
04 Sept
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 4 Dorados de Sinaloa
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
29 Aug
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
14 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 Aug
Correcaminos
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Morelia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19:18 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8:22 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8:29 | 6 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
