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Alfaro vs SD Logrones

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026
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Match Events

40' Event
Aguinaga P.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 game between Alfaro and SD Logrones finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SD Logrones.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Alfaro
15%
Draws
65%
SD Logrones
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SD Logrones

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Very High Confidence
  • SD Logrones carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives SD Logrones a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • SD Logrones have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Alfaro Clean Sheet 17%
SD Logrones Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfaro SD Logrones
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 5 8
Draws 5 12
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 1.5 0.5
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Alfaro vs SD Logrones
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
SD Logrones vs Alfaro
1:0
Aug 9, 2025 Club Friendly
SD Logrones vs Alfaro
1:2
Mar 2, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
SD Logrones vs Alfaro
4:1
Oct 20, 2024 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Alfaro vs SD Logrones
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfaro Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

SD Logrones Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguinaga P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfaro 12 / 100
SD Logrones 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfaro SD Logrones

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SDL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Logrones's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 33 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Alfaro scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Alfaro went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alfaro VS SD Logrones
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfaro

(Home)
07 Aug
Alfaro
0 : 4
Tudelano
01 May
Real Union
2 : 0
Alfaro
26 Apr
Alfaro
0 : 1
SD Logrones
19 Apr
Alfaro
2 : 1
Naxara
12 Apr
Tudelano
3 : 1
Alfaro
Page 1 of 6

SD Logrones

(Away)
01 Aug
SD Logrones
0 : 0
Osasuna B
17 May
SD Logrones
1 : 0
Castellon B
10 May
Castellon B
2 : 3
SD Logrones
03 May
SD Logrones
0 : 1
Tudelano
26 Apr
Alfaro
0 : 1
SD Logrones
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Union 34 20 9 5 64:35 69
2 Alaves B 34 17 11 6 41:20 62
3 UD Logrones 34 18 7 9 73:33 61
4 Utebo FC 34 17 7 10 56:42 58
5 Tudelano 34 16 9 9 56:40 57
6 Amorebieta 34 13 11 10 38:32 50
7 Sestao 34 12 14 8 40:33 50
8 Ebro 34 11 16 7 42:36 49
9 Eibar B 34 14 7 13 41:42 49
10 Basconia 34 11 14 9 55:43 47
11 Gernika Club 34 12 9 13 34:40 45
12 Naxara 34 11 8 15 39:48 41
13 SD Logrones 34 8 13 13 22:40 37
14 Beasain 34 8 12 14 38:46 36
15 SD Ejea 34 8 11 15 35:55 35
16 Mutilvera 34 8 6 20 31:65 30
17 Zaragoza B 34 7 7 20 32:59 28
18 Alfaro 34 6 7 21 32:60 25
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)