Sport Picks
Alfreton vs Curzon Ashton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
National League North 2025/2026 
Match Events
22'
22'
Ligendza S.
(Penalty)
35'
35'
Salmon L.
53'
53'
Salmon L.
AI Match Summary
The National League North 2025/2026 game between Alfreton and Curzon Ashton finished 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Curzon Ashton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Alfreton come out ahead of Curzon Ashton on wins alone.
- 49% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 12%
Curzon Ashton Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alfreton | Curzon Ashton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton
1:0
Apr 25, 2026 National League North
Alfreton vs Curzon Ashton
3:3
Dec 6, 2025 National League North
Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton
2:1
Apr 18, 2025 National League North
Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton
0:0
Jan 1, 2025 National League North
Alfreton vs Curzon Ashton
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alfreton Compare
Top Goalscorer Salmon L.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Curzon Ashton Compare
Top Goalscorer Weston T.
2 Goals Assists Leader Barton A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alfreton 30 / 100
Curzon Ashton 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alfreton Curzon Ashton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Curzon Ashton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Alfreton scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.
Defensive concern: Curzon Ashton conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Alfreton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Alfreton VS Curzon Ashton
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alfreton
(Home) 06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
03 Oct
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1 Alfreton
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0 Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1 Shifnal Town
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0 Alfreton
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0 Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1 Shifnal Town
05 Sept
Alfreton
0 : 2 Stratford
29 Aug
Alfreton
1 : 2 Warrington Rylands
Page 1 of 4
Curzon Ashton
(Away) 06 Oct
Curzon Ashton
3 : 1 Redcar Athletic
26 Sept
Curzon Ashton
3 : 1 Stalybridge
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2 Curzon Ashton
05 Sept
Curzon Ashton
1 : 2 Bradford PA
31 Aug
Curzon Ashton
2 : 0 Ashton United
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2 Curzon Ashton
28 Aug
Cleethorpes
1 : 3 Curzon Ashton
25 Aug
Warrington Town
0 : 4 Curzon Ashton
14 Aug
AFC Emley
2 : 1 Curzon Ashton
11 Aug
Bury FC
3 : 2 Curzon Ashton
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 112:51 | 100 |
| 2 | South Shields | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 99:43 | 95 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 74:51 | 87 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 46 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 81:68 | 79 |
| 5 | Buxton | 46 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 83:61 | 73 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 46 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 61:52 | 73 |
| 7 | Chester | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 66:64 | 73 |
| 8 | Merthyr Town | 46 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 95:86 | 70 |
| 9 | Darlington FC | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 78:68 | 69 |
| 10 | Spennymoor | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 62:69 | 68 |
| 11 | Telford | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 85:65 | 65 |
| 12 | Marine | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 62:72 | 62 |
| 13 | Radcliffe | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 76:83 | 60 |
| 14 | Southport | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 64:71 | 60 |
| 15 | Chorley | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 66:65 | 57 |
| 16 | Worksop | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 66:74 | 57 |
| 17 | Oxford City | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 62:67 | 56 |
| 18 | Bedford | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 66:77 | 53 |
| 19 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 56:64 | 52 |
| 20 | Hereford | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 64:79 | 52 |
| 21 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 67:88 | 52 |
| 22 | Alfreton | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49:82 | 50 |
| 23 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 51:96 | 39 |
| 24 | Leamington | 46 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 41:90 | 29 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
