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Alfreton vs Derby

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Ward J.
33' Event
Clark B.
40'
Sub
Hedges R. In: Harvey R.
Out: Hedges R.

AI Match Summary

Derby in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Derby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Alfreton
15%
Draws
28%
Derby
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfreton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Derby have won more games recently than Alfreton.
  • Win probability leans Alfreton's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 20%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfreton Derby
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 6 2
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.14 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Alfreton vs Derby
0:2
Jul 26, 2022 Club Friendly
Alfreton vs Derby
2:1
Jul 7, 2015 Club Friendly
Alfreton vs Derby
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfreton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Derby Compare

Top Goalscorer Ward J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Clark B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfreton 85 / 100
Derby 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfreton Derby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alfreton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Derby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Derby lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Alfreton found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Alfreton VS Derby
1.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfreton

(Home)
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0
Alfreton
05 Sept
Alfreton
0 : 2
Stratford
31 Aug
Whitby
1 : 4
Alfreton
29 Aug
Alfreton
1 : 2
Warrington Rylands
25 Aug
Alfreton
4 : 0
Hyde
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Derby

(Away)
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2
Birmingham
09 Sept
Derby
0 : 1
West Brom
05 Sept
West Ham
3 : 0
Derby
01 Sept
Portsmouth
0 : 2
Derby
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3
Swansea
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