Sport Picks
Alfreton vs Gainsborough - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
NPL Premier Division 
Match Events
1'
1'
Ligendza S.
75'
75'
Youmbi D.
79'
79'
Ashton O.
AI Match Summary
Alfreton in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alfreton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
15%
37%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alfreton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Gainsborough average 1.55 goals a game right now, well clear of Alfreton's 1.26.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Alfreton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 11%
Gainsborough Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alfreton | Gainsborough |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 11, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Alfreton vs Gainsborough
2:1
Nov 18, 2025 FA Trophy
Gainsborough vs Alfreton
1:2
Jan 27, 2018 National League North
Gainsborough vs Alfreton
2:1
Sep 9, 2017 National League North
Alfreton vs Gainsborough
4:1
Feb 4, 2017 National League North
Gainsborough vs Alfreton
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alfreton Compare
Top Goalscorer Ligendza S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Youmbi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Gainsborough Compare
Top Goalscorer Ashton O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alfreton 30 / 100
Gainsborough 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alfreton Gainsborough
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Gainsborough Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Alfreton found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (27 games).
Gainsborough has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Alfreton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Alfreton VS Gainsborough
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Alfreton
(Home) 06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
03 Oct
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1 Alfreton
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0 Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1 Shifnal Town
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0 Alfreton
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Alfreton
1 : 0 United of Manchester
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0 Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1 Shifnal Town
05 Sept
Alfreton
0 : 2 Stratford
29 Aug
Alfreton
1 : 2 Warrington Rylands
Page 1 of 4
Gainsborough
(Away) 06 Oct
Whitby
2 : 6 Gainsborough
03 Oct
Gainsborough
2 : 3 Anstey Nomads
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3 Gainsborough
22 Sept
Gainsborough
3 : 0 Leamington
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1 Gainsborough
Page 1 of 6
06 Oct
Whitby
2 : 6 Gainsborough
26 Sept
Bury FC
4 : 3 Gainsborough
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1 Gainsborough
05 Sept
Sherwood Colliery
2 : 4 Gainsborough
28 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 2 Gainsborough
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33:19 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23:11 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24:11 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23:19 | 21 |
| 6 | Warrington Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20:17 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21:11 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18:13 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20:16 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:9 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20:14 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16:24 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13:21 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17:32 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22:23 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:27 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10:22 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:31 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7:26 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12:20 | 5 |
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
