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Alfreton vs Guiseley

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Odunaiya D.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Alfreton and Guiseley finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alfreton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Alfreton
15%
Draws
49%
Guiseley
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guiseley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Guiseley carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Alfreton Clean Sheet 10%
Guiseley Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alfreton Guiseley
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 10 17
Draws 5 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.22 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 29, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Alfreton vs Guiseley
1:0
May 7, 2022 National League North
Alfreton vs Guiseley
2:1
Jan 25, 2022 National League North
Guiseley vs Alfreton
3:2
May 15, 2021 National League North
Alfreton vs Guiseley
0:0
May 11, 2021 National League North
Guiseley vs Alfreton
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alfreton Compare

Top Goalscorer Odunaiya D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Guiseley Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alfreton 34 / 100
Guiseley 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alfreton Guiseley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guiseley Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alfreton found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (27 games).

Guiseley has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Alfreton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alfreton VS Guiseley
1 Goals Scored 3
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Alfreton

(Home)
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Alfreton
2 : 1
Shifnal Town
12 Sept
Bamber Bridge
1 : 0
Alfreton
05 Sept
Alfreton
0 : 2
Stratford
31 Aug
Whitby
1 : 4
Alfreton
Page 1 of 6

Guiseley

(Away)
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Guiseley
4 : 2
Bamber Bridge
19 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 4
Guiseley
12 Sept
Guiseley
4 : 1
Quorn
08 Sept
Guiseley
2 : 1
Stockton
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Redcar Athletic 11 7 4 0 22:8 25
2 Cleethorpes 11 7 3 1 26:7 24
3 Avro 9 7 1 1 28:16 22
4 Workington 11 6 2 3 21:17 20
5 Guiseley 10 6 1 3 22:11 19
6 Warrington Rylands 11 6 1 4 17:14 19
7 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 18:14 17
8 Bury FC 9 5 1 3 19:8 16
9 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 18:10 16
10 Lancaster 11 5 1 5 13:19 16
11 Alfreton 11 5 0 6 17:13 15
12 Hyde 11 4 2 5 13:20 14
13 Gainsborough 9 4 1 4 14:12 13
14 Whitby 10 4 0 6 15:26 12
15 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
16 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
17 Leek Town 10 2 3 5 19:20 9
18 Quorn 10 2 3 5 16:25 9
19 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
20 Stockton 11 2 2 7 14:22 8
21 Ilkeston 11 2 1 8 7:24 7
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 12:19 5
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)