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Alftanes vs Ymir

Iceland Iceland

Fotbolti.net Cup 2025 HTH Völlurrinn, Álftanes
Wed, Jul 16, 2025
4 - 7
07:15 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hauksson K. T.
Own Goal
41' Event
Sveinsson P.
45' Event
Sigurdsson B.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-7, with Ymir advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Alftanes
15%
Draws
34%
Ymir
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alftanes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Alftanes carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Ymir a 34% chance of winning this.
  • Alftanes have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ymir, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 90%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 90%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Alftanes Clean Sheet 10%
Ymir Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alftanes Ymir
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 11 9
Draws 0 0
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 1.75 2.74
Goals Conceded 2.54 3.04
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 3.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2025 Fotbolti.net Cup
Alftanes vs Ymir
4:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alftanes Compare

Top Goalscorer Ingolfsson S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sveinsson P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Ymir Compare

Top Goalscorer Gudmundsson A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Vigfusson B.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.41
Avg xA / game 2.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alftanes 26 / 100
Ymir 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alftanes Ymir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ymir Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ymir has conceded goals in 85% of their last 27 outings.

These sides typically produce 11.00 goals when they meet.

Alftanes has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Ymir lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alftanes VS Ymir
2.63 Goals Scored 3.88
3.63 Goals Conceded 3.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Alftanes

(Home)
04 Aug
Dalvik/Reynir
1 : 5
Alftanes
06 Apr
Grotta
1 : 0
Alftanes
30 Mar
Alftanes
5 : 1
Kari
17 Mar
Alftanes
5 : 2
Kria
16 Jul
Alftanes
4 : 7
Ymir
Page 1 of 6

Ymir

(Away)
04 Aug
Selfoss
4 : 0
Ymir
03 Apr
Afturelding
6 : 1
Ymir
28 Mar
Ymir
10 : 0
KFS
20 Mar
Ymir
7 : 0
Falkar
05 Aug
Kormakur/Hvot
3 : 1
Ymir
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
KV Reykjavik 1
Hottur / Huginn 2
Grotta 3
KFS 0
KFA 3
Kari 0
Olafsvik 3
Reynir 1
Tindastoll 3
Throttur Vogar 2
KFG Gardabaer 3
Aegir 2
Arbaer 3
Kormakur/Hvot 4
Alftanes 4
Ymir 7
Quarter-finals
Hottur / Huginn 1
Grotta 2
KFA 3
Olafsvik 4
Tindastoll 4
KFG Gardabaer 1
Kormakur/Hvot 3
Ymir 1
Semi-finals
Grotta 3
Olafsvik 4
Tindastoll 3
Kormakur/Hvot 1
Final
Olafsvik 2
Tindastoll 0