Sport Picks
Aliados Lordelo vs Sertanense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Taça de Portugal 2012/2013 
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Aliados Lordelo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
20%
20%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aliados Lordelo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- Sertanense haven't matched Aliados Lordelo's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Aliados Lordelo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Aliados Lordelo, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Aliados Lordelo have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Aliados Lordelo Clean Sheet 20%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aliados Lordelo | Sertanense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 11 |
| Losses | 15 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 0.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 16, 2012 Taça de Portugal
Aliados Lordelo vs Sertanense
2:1
Feb 20, 2011 Second Division - Zona Centro
Aliados Lordelo vs Sertanense
2:0
Oct 24, 2010 Second Division - Zona Centro
Sertanense vs Aliados Lordelo
2:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aliados Lordelo 31 / 100
Sertanense 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aliados Lordelo Sertanense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aliados Lordelo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sertanense let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
Attacking prowess: Aliados Lordelo scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.
Sertanense lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Sertanense
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Aliados Lordelo
(Home) 10 Sept
Aliados Lordelo
1 : 3 SC Vianense
21 Sept
Oriental
1 : 0 Aliados Lordelo
01 Sept
Aliados Lordelo
3 : 2 Manteigas
21 Oct
Aliados Lordelo
0 : 2 Oliveirense
16 Sept
Aliados Lordelo
2 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 6
10 Sept
Aliados Lordelo
1 : 3 SC Vianense
01 Sept
Aliados Lordelo
3 : 2 Manteigas
21 Oct
Aliados Lordelo
0 : 2 Oliveirense
16 Sept
Aliados Lordelo
2 : 1 Sertanense
22 Apr
Aliados Lordelo
0 : 2 Operario
Page 1 of 4
Sertanense
(Away) 27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0 Sertanense
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Vitoria Guimaraes -
TBD -
FC Felgueiras 1
Vilaverdense FC 2
Tondela 5
Lagoa 0
TBD -
Vitoria Setubal -
Aguiar da Beira 3
Vila Mea 2
SC Barreiro 2
Uniao Lamas 3
AD Oliveirense 1
Alcanenense 0
TBD -
Maritimo -
FC Porto -
TBD -
Amarante FC 0
Santa Eulalia 3
SC Espinho 3
AA Avanca 0
TBD -
Nacional -
FC Pampilhosa 1
GD Sourense 0
Cinfaes 0
Covilha 4
Leixoes 4
Leca 1
TBD -
Braga -
Arouca 1
Trofense 0
Atletico CP 0
Naval 2
Portimonense 2
Academico Viseu 0
TBD -
Rio Ave -
SC Farense 3
CDR Quarteirense 2
Grijo 0
Atletico SC 1
Penafiel 1
Casa Pia 0
TBD -
Beira Mar -
Fabril do Barreiro 2
Paredes 1
Desportivo Moncao 0
Electrico FC 1
Ribeirao 6
Uniao Montemor 0
Oeiras 1
Oliveira Hospital 4
Pedras Rubras 4
Maritimo Graciosa 0
SB Castelo Branco 1
U. Madeira 3
Anadia 3
Vitoria FC Pico 0
Vizela 0
BSAD 4
Pacos Ferreira -
TBD -
TBD -
Estoril -
1º Dezembro 1
Pero Pinheiro 0
TBD -
Olhanense -
Feirense 2
Padroense 0
C.F. Benfica 1
AD Fafe 2
Pinhalnovense 2
Santa Maria FC 1
Louletano 1
SC Lourinhanense 2
Oliveirense 2
Sintrense 1
Sertanense 1
Aliados Lordelo 2
Sacavenense 1
Sampedrense 0
CD Ribeira Brava 0
Leiria 1
SC Mirandela 1
SL Cartaxo 0
Bustelo 0
Varzim 3
Gondomar 1
SC Praiense 0
TBD -
Gil Vicente -
Academica -
TBD -
Melgacense 1
Ponte da Barca 2
Fatima 4
SC Pombal 1
GD Peniche 0
Penalva do Castelo 1
Santa Clara 3
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 0
Tocha 1
Nogueirense 2
AD Limianos 4
Amora 0
Oriental 0
GD Tourizense 1
Aves 2
Estarreja 0
Chaves 0
Tirsense 2
Caldas SC 3
Operario 0
Sousense 0
Coimbroes 2
Moreirense -
TBD -
TBD -
Sporting CP -
Freamunde 1
SC Salgueiros 0
TBD -
Benfica -
1/32-finals
Vitoria Guimaraes 6
Vilaverdense FC 1
Tondela 0
Vitoria Setubal 1
Aguiar da Beira 1
Uniao Lamas 0
AD Oliveirense 1
Maritimo 2
FC Porto 1
Santa Eulalia 0
SC Espinho 0
Nacional 4
FC Pampilhosa 6
Covilha 5
Leixoes 0
Braga 3
Arouca 3
Naval 1
Portimonense 1
Rio Ave 2
SC Farense 1
Atletico SC 0
Penafiel 0
Beira Mar 1
Fabril do Barreiro 3
Electrico FC 1
Ribeirao 1
Oliveira Hospital 2
Pedras Rubras 3
U. Madeira 2
Anadia 2
BSAD 5
Pacos Ferreira 2
Estoril 1
1º Dezembro 0
Olhanense 3
Feirense 3
AD Fafe 0
Pinhalnovense 0
SC Lourinhanense 3
Oliveirense 2
Aliados Lordelo 0
Sacavenense 2
Leiria 3
SC Mirandela 2
Varzim 1
Gondomar 0
Gil Vicente 2
Academica 3
Ponte da Barca 1
Fatima 0
Penalva do Castelo 1
Santa Clara 3
Nogueirense 1
AD Limianos 0
GD Tourizense 1
Aves 3
Tirsense 1
Caldas SC 0
Coimbroes 1
Moreirense 3
Sporting CP 2
Freamunde 0
Benfica 4
1/16-finals
Vitoria Guimaraes 3
Vitoria Setubal 2
Aguiar da Beira 0
Maritimo 3
FC Porto 3
Nacional 0
FC Pampilhosa 1
Braga 3
Arouca 2
Rio Ave 1
SC Farense 1
Beira Mar 2
Fabril do Barreiro 2
Oliveira Hospital 0
Pedras Rubras 0
BSAD 3
Pacos Ferreira 2
Olhanense 1
Feirense 2
SC Lourinhanense 3
Oliveirense 1
Leiria 0
SC Mirandela 1
Gil Vicente 2
Academica 1
Penalva do Castelo 0
Santa Clara 0
GD Tourizense 1
Aves 2
Coimbroes 1
Moreirense 0
Benfica 2
1/8-finals
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Maritimo 1
FC Porto 1
Braga 2
Arouca 2
Beira Mar 1
Fabril do Barreiro 0
BSAD 4
Pacos Ferreira 6
SC Lourinhanense 0
Oliveirense 0
Gil Vicente 1
Academica 3
GD Tourizense 0
Aves 0
Benfica 6
Quarter-finals
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Braga 1
Arouca 1
BSAD 4
Pacos Ferreira 2
Gil Vicente 1
Academica 0
Benfica 4
Semi-finals
Vitoria Guimaraes 3
BSAD 0
Pacos Ferreira 1
Benfica 3
Final
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Benfica 1
