Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alianca vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca

Brazil Brazil

Copa Alagoas
Wed, Feb 11, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Alianca at 1.38 goals for, 1.5 against; Cruzeiro Arapiraca at 1.14 for, 1.24 against. Past meetings favor Cruzeiro Arapiraca slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 11, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.94 - 0.88) back Cruzeiro Arapiraca to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Alianca
30%
Draws
29%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alianca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cruzeiro Arapiraca lately — more wins on the board than Alianca.
  • Alianca are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Cruzeiro Arapiraca arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cruzeiro Arapiraca, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Cruzeiro Arapiraca have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Alianca Clean Sheet 20%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianca Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 7 10
Draws 3 7
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.38 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Copa Alagoas
Alianca vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0:0
Aug 24, 2025 Alagoano 2
Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs Alianca
3:0
Feb 21, 2024 Copa Alagoas
Alianca vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca
1:3
Jan 25, 2023 Alagoano
Alianca vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0:5
Feb 13, 2022 Alagoano
Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs Alianca
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianca 85 / 100
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianca Cruzeiro Arapiraca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alianca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cruzeiro Arapiraca conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Alianca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Alianca scored in 54% of their last 26 games.

Scoring Trends

Alianca VS Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alianca

(Home)
17 May
Zumbi
1 : 0
Alianca
10 May
Alianca
0 : 0
Zumbi
02 May
Alianca
9 : 0
Jacioba
26 Apr
Sao Domingos AL
2 : 6
Alianca
22 Apr
Alianca
1 : 6
Sporting FC
Page 1 of 6

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

(Away)
18 Mar
Coruripe
1 : 1
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
10 Mar
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
3 : 3
Dimensao Capela
07 Feb
CSA
2 : 0
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
04 Feb
CSA
3 : 0
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
31 Jan
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2 : 1
Coruripe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSA 4 3 0 1 11:3 9
2 CRB 4 2 1 1 7:4 7
3 Coruripe 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
4 Cruzeiro Arapiraca 4 0 3 1 4:7 3
5 Dimensao Capela 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
6 Alianca 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ASA 5 4 1 0 10:1 13
2 Clube Sociedade Esportiva 5 4 1 0 10:2 13
3 Zumbi 5 2 1 2 8:9 7
4 Murici 5 2 0 3 7:5 6
5 SC Penedense 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
6 Miguelense 5 0 0 5 2:18 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas (Play Offs)