Sport Picks

South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Miguel Grau

Macara

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alianza Atl. play Macara in the Copa Sudamericana. It looks like a close match. Recently, Alianza Atl. averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Macara averaged 1 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. In past meetings, Alianza Atl. won 0, Macara won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 22, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Alianza Atl. and 0.88 for Macara. This points to a Macara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

Alianza Atl.

30%

Draws

38%

Macara

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Alianza Atl. picked up more points recently compared to Macara.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 64%

Over 2.5 Goals 32%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Alianza Atl. Clean Sheet 25%

Macara Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 58%

Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Alianza Atl.	Macara
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	10	11
Draws	8	9
Losses	11	8
Goals Scored	1.03	1
Goals Conceded	1.07	0.89
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Macara vs Alianza Atl.

Possession: 47% - 60% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

May 1, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Alianza Atl. vs Macara

Possession: 40% - 57% Cards: 0 - 3

0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alianza Atl. Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Posse F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Miranda M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza Atl. 34 / 100

Macara 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Alianza Atl. Macara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Macara or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +23.2%

3.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Alianza Atl. attacking → ← attacking Macara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alianza Atl. scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Macara let in goals in 50% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Alianza Atl. went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Macara lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 42

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macara	6	2	4	0	6:3	10
2	Tigre	6	2	3	1	8:5	9
3	America De Cali	6	2	3	1	6:5	9
4	Alianza Atl.	6	0	2	4	2:9	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico-MG	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
2	Cienciano	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
3	Juventud	6	1	4	1	10:7	7
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	6	2	1	3	6:9	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sao Paulo	6	3	3	0	6:1	12
2	O Higgins	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
3	Millonarios	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
4	Boston River	6	1	0	5	5:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Recoleta	6	1	5	0	6:5	8
2	Santos	6	1	4	1	8:6	7
3	San Lorenzo	6	1	4	1	6:5	7
4	Dep. Cuenca	6	1	3	2	3:7	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo RJ	6	5	1	0	15:5	16
2	Caracas	6	2	3	1	9:9	9
3	Racing Club	6	2	2	2	11:9	8
4	Independiente	6	0	0	6	3:15	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montevideo City	6	4	1	1	11:5	13
2	Gremio	6	3	2	1	8:3	11
3	Deportivo Riestra	6	1	2	3	4:10	5
4	Palestino	6	0	3	3	1:6	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	6	4	1	1	10:6	13
2	Vasco	6	3	1	2	10:6	10
3	A. Italiano	6	2	1	3	7:9	7
4	Barracas Central	6	0	3	3	2:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	River Plate	6	4	2	0	9:3	14
2	Bragantino	6	3	1	2	12:5	10
3	Carabobo	6	3	0	3	6:5	9
4	Blooming	6	0	1	5	3:17	1