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Alianza Atl. vs Sporting Cristal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Campeones del 36, Sullana
Sun, Nov 15, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa de la Liga. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Alianza Atl. have averaged 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded recently, against Sporting Cristal's 1.81 scored and 1.13 conceded. Head-to-head, Alianza Atl. have won 3 to Sporting Cristal's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 21, 2026, ending 3:1. The numbers (1.94 xG vs 1.94) point toward Alianza Atl.. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Alianza Atl.
15%
Draws
47%
Sporting Cristal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sporting Cristal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alianza Atl. lately — more wins on the board than Sporting Cristal.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Alianza Atl. have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Alianza Atl., who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Alianza Atl. Clean Sheet 10%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alianza Atl. Sporting Cristal
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 18 17
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.72 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Liga 1
Alianza Atl. vs Sporting Cristal
3:1
Mar 7, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Atl.
3:1
Sep 17, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Atl.
0:0
Apr 19, 2025 Liga 1
Alianza Atl. vs Sporting Cristal
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Liga 1
Alianza Atl. vs Sporting Cristal
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alianza Atl. 34 / 100
Sporting Cristal 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alianza Atl. Sporting Cristal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sporting Cristal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alianza Atl. found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).

Sporting Cristal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Alianza Atl. stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alianza Atl. VS Sporting Cristal
2.88 Goals Scored 2.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Alianza Atl.

(Home)
11 Oct
Sport Boys
1 : 3
Alianza Atl.
06 Oct
Alianza Atl.
3 : 0
Sport Boys
27 Sept
Sport Boys
2 : 5
Alianza Atl.
18 Sept
Alianza Atl.
2 : 1
Comerciantes Unidos
13 Sept
Atletico Grau
3 : 1
Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 7

Sporting Cristal

(Away)
11 Oct
Cajamarca
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0
AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1
Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Alianza Atl. 3
Pirata 2
Cajamarca 4
ADA Jaen 1
Atletico Grau 2
Carlos Mannucci 1
Sport Boys 1
Comerciantes FC 0
Sporting Cristal 2
Tacna Heroica 1
Sport Huancayo 3
Los Chankas 1
Cienciano 2
AD Tarma 3
Moquegua 1
Deportivo Garcilaso 0
Quarter-finals
Alianza Atl. 2
Cajamarca 1
Atletico Grau 2
Sport Boys 3
Sporting Cristal 4
Sport Huancayo 1
AD Tarma 2
Moquegua 0
Semi-finals
Alianza Atl. 8
Sport Boys 2
Sporting Cristal 6
AD Tarma 0
Final
Alianza Atl. -
Sporting Cristal -