Sport Picks
Alianza vs Atl. Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar 
Match Events
5'
5'
Sarmiento A.
Assist: Velasquez S.
8'
8'
Meza Mercado E. W.
16'
16'
Tesillo W.
AI Match Summary
Atl. Nacional in this Primera A matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atl. Nacional.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
30%
28%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alianza
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Alianza haven't matched Atl. Nacional's recent run of results.
- 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Atl. Nacional here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Alianza Clean Sheet 10%
Atl. Nacional Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Alianza | Atl. Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 18 |
| Draws | 9 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.82 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Primera A
Alianza vs Atl. Nacional
1:5
Feb 21, 2026 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Alianza
3:0
Aug 8, 2025 Primera A
Atl. Nacional vs Alianza
3:0
Feb 23, 2025 Primera A
Alianza vs Atl. Nacional
3:2
Sep 20, 2024 Copa Colombia
Atl. Nacional vs Alianza
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Alianza Compare
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Atl. Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Moreno M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Sarmiento A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Alianza 30 / 100
Atl. Nacional 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Alianza Atl. Nacional
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Alianza's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Atl. Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.
Solid form: Alianza remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Alianza VS Atl. Nacional
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
2 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Alianza
(Home) 03 Oct
Dep. Cali
3 : 1 Alianza
27 Sept
Jaguares de Cordoba
1 : 2 Alianza
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
16 Sept
Chico
1 : 2 Alianza
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4 Santa Fe
13 Sept
Alianza
1 : 0 Junior
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
22 Aug
Alianza
0 : 0 Dep. Pereira
09 Aug
Alianza
2 : 3 Bucaramanga
Page 1 of 3
Atl. Nacional
(Away) 08 Oct
Atl. Nacional
0 : 0 Deportes Tolima
01 Oct
Atl. Nacional
3 : 1 Junior
26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Chapecoense-SC
25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1 Millonarios
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0 Atl. Nacional
Page 1 of 6
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0 Atl. Nacional
17 Sept
Inter Bogotá
2 : 3 Atl. Nacional
30 Aug
Alianza
1 : 5 Atl. Nacional
23 Aug
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1 : 2 Atl. Nacional
10 Aug
America De Cali
1 : 0 Atl. Nacional
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America De Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24:7 | 27 |
| 2 | Dep. Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20:9 | 24 |
| 3 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21:10 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20:10 | 23 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19:12 | 22 |
| 7 | Ind. Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15:13 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | 15 |
| 10 | Llaneros | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15:16 | 14 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:15 | 14 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15:16 | 13 |
| 13 | Inter Bogotá | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14:18 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 12 |
| 15 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 16 | Alianza | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12:24 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16:20 | 9 |
| 18 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 19 | Dep. Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7:17 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11:20 | 7 |
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)
